Betdata.io In spite of all the talk about “leadership challenges” there’s been little change in the Betfair betting on when TMay will cease to be leader. Next year remains the solid 37% favourite with 2018 a 25% shot. A few weeks go I got 8/1 with a bookie that she’d be out this year which I regarded then as value. The latest prices don’t tempt me. But there is little doubt that she has done remarkably well to survive for…
Talk of letters to Graham Brady is probably just talk It has been reported over the weekend that Mrs May could possibly face a challenge over the issue of whether Britain remains in a Customs Union after Brexit. Hardline Brexiteers are absolutely resolute that this should not happen and have been making vibes that should Mrs May concede what seems to be the position of Brussels then she could face a confidence vote. There are warnings about that in order…
Maybe not a third Democratic special election victory on the trot? After the sensational Democratic party wins in the recent Alabama and Pennsylvania special elections there’s a lot of focus on Arizona 8th Congressional District where voting takes place next Tuesday. The earlier two elections saw victories for the Democratic Party which were particularly striking because because they were in places Trump had done so well at WH2016. There’s been a bit of excitement on this latest “special” election because…
How things have changed since It is just a year since Theresa May made her fateful and what will be her career defining announcement about calling a general election to secure a bigger majority. On the weekend after the news we had the initial round of voting intention polls of the campaign and those are shown in the chart above. As can be seen the one that stands out is ComRes, which had been the most accurate pollster two years…
YouGov VI: CON: 43% (+3) LAB: 38% (-2) LD: 8% (-1) There is a new YouGov poll for the Times which has the Tories moving to a 5% lead compared with the level pegging that they had a week ago. The fieldwork took place at the start of the week and before the Windrush issue really caught hold as a big media story. A finding that should concern LAB is that of those who voted for the party on June…
The Queen won’t abdicate but she might still retire The beauty of the Commonwealth lies in its pointlessness. Far from being a hindrance, the fact that it doesn’t have a purpose is a feature, not a bug. No-one is being swept along by ‘the Project’ and rarely does anyone expect anything from the two-yearly get-togethers – and that lack of clear agenda, combined with an informal atmosphere with leaders parted from advisors and officials, is what can create the space…
Highland on Perth and Kinross (Con defence) Result: Con 1,907 (47% +2% on last time), Lab 239 (6% no candidate last time), Lib Dem 78 (2% -1% on last time), Green 104 (3% -1% on last time), Ind (Taylor) 280 (7%), Ind (Baykal) 12 (0%), SNP 1,466 (36% +1% on last time) Conservative lead over SNP of 441 (9%) on a swing of 0.5% from SNP to Con Total Independent vote: 292 (7% -4% on last time) No candidate elected…
His handling of the antisemitism issue might be driving this The above the data comes from Opinium the only pollster which does at least a monthly survey of leader approval ratings which means that we have sufficient data points to identify trend. The last numbers were from fieldwork last week before Tuesdays antisemitism debate in the Commons which got a lot of very negative coverage ad helped to deflect a little from Mrs. May’s Windrush problem. What is striking is…