Elizabeth Warren trounces betting favourite, Bernie Sanders, in the first Democratic primary poll of WH2020

Elizabeth Warren trounces betting favourite, Bernie Sanders, in the first Democratic primary poll of WH2020

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NEW HAMPSHIREIf the Democratic primary for president were held today and the candidates were [see below] …Warren 26%Biden 20%Sanders 13%Booker 8%Harris 4%Patrick 4%Gillibrand 2%McAuliffe 2%Unsure 21%(Suffolk U. Poll, Democratic primary voters, 4/26-30/18) — PollingReport.com (@pollreport) May 2, 2018 An early setback for Bernie & his enthusiastic fans? Although the first primary of the next White House Race will not be held for another 20 months or so we have the first poll out overnight on the Democratic nomination and this,…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Rudd resigns, immigration, Trump’s visit, plus a look ahead to the local elections

NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Rudd resigns, immigration, Trump’s visit, plus a look ahead to the local elections

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On this week’s podcast, Leo Barasi returns and discusses the latest glut of voting intention polls with Keiran Pedley. Leo and Keiran look at what is behind the differences in voting intention figures between pollsters, how Corbyn’s personal poll ratings compare historically and the importance of the economy is in current polling. The podcast then turns to Rudd’s resignation this week, with an in-depth look at public opinion on her departure and immigration more generally. Topics covered include whether the…

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Leave till last. Identifying the next Conservative leader

Leave till last. Identifying the next Conservative leader

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    Considering how fondly it is remembered as a children’s book, The Hobbit has a lot of gore in it.  (The alert will already have figured out that I’m going to be talking about Conservative leadership manoeuvrings.)  Bilbo Baggins is threatened with imminent devourment on five separate occasions, which would make even the most gung-ho adventurer feel put out.  On the first of these occasions, he has been captured by trolls.  They quiz him about whether there are others…

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The Tories go into Thursday’s locals in a much better national polling position than when the seats were last fought in 2014

The Tories go into Thursday’s locals in a much better national polling position than when the seats were last fought in 2014

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TMay’s Tories doing better over Corbyn’s LAB than Cameron’s party was doing over EdM’s Given that context is everything I thought it might be useful to show the national polling gap between the main two parties this year compared with what it was in 2014 when most of the seats up on Thursday will last fought. Rather than show every single poll that was carried out in April 2014 and this month I have taken the average gap tha the…

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The winner of the first Westminster by-elections of the Parliament is unlikely even to take his seat

The winner of the first Westminster by-elections of the Parliament is unlikely even to take his seat

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Harry Hayfield on Thursday’s West Tyrone Parliamentary By-Election (Sinn Fein defence) This by-election is the 33rd by-election since the 2010 general election and is the 25th occasion when a by-election has been caused by an MP resigning their seat (75%). This compares with the eight years before then (2002 – 2010) when out of 21 by-elections 11 were caused by resigning MP’s (52%) and the reason for this? Fewer and fewer MP’s are dying in office. Indeed during the 1966…

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Prof John Curtice suggests that LAB is not going to have an easy ride in Thursday locals as many of the forecasts

Prof John Curtice suggests that LAB is not going to have an easy ride in Thursday locals as many of the forecasts

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John Curtice In an article in the Independent and a presentation at the annual Political Studies Association local election briefing John Curtice has cast doubts on the suggestions that Corbyn’s Labour is going to have an exceptional performance in this week’s locals. The big thing in his analysis is that there is a huge divide on Brexit between London, where 42% of the seats will be contested, and the councils in the rest of England where elections are being held….

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How the Tories are using the the appointment of the new Home Secretary

How the Tories are using the the appointment of the new Home Secretary

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The big news of the day has been the appointment by Theresa May of Sajid Javid as the new Home Secretary – the first time a member of the BAME communities has been appointed to one of the main officers of state. Given the background for the demise of his predecessor this appears a smart move which the Tories are hoping will help the win greater support from the non white communities a segment of the electorate where they’ve really…

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