The early money goes on the LDs in Lewisham East

The early money goes on the LDs in Lewisham East

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The GE17 result from Lewisham East where there's to be a by-election. Looks like a LAB hold on reduced majority on low turnout pic.twitter.com/spDRfIkIyg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 8, 2018 The parliament’s first mainland by election in a seat that was 64.5% Repmain We have waited a long time but now we have news of the first parliamentary by-election on the mainland since the last June’s General Election. The seat is Lewisham East which has been made vacant by…

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The last LE2018 post: How the main academic election predictions did

The last LE2018 post: How the main academic election predictions did

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A key part of election analysis each year are the two academic seat projections which seek to project party Council gains and losses. These play a big part in setting the media narrative over party expectations. Professions Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher have been doing this for years and their projections are based on what has been happening in the local council by-elections in the run up to polling day. The other is from Oxford Professor Stephen Fisher who is…

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The battle for Wandsworth from a LAB perspective

The battle for Wandsworth from a LAB perspective

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Theresa May had a bit of a cheek turning up in Wandsworth and claiming a victory where the Tories came within a whisker of losing their jewel in the crown council Another hundred votes in the right places would have put Labour in power after forty years in opposition. A close examination of the results  show that n St Mary’s Park the bottom Tory was a mere 3 votes clear of Labour’s top candidate and the second just 16 head…

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LAB supporters are deluding themselves if they think an anti-CON rainbow coalition would automatically back Corbyn for PM

LAB supporters are deluding themselves if they think an anti-CON rainbow coalition would automatically back Corbyn for PM

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Corbyn’s poor leader ratings highlight the weakness Ever since general election seat projections like the one from Sky above have appeared LAB supporters and Corbyn enthusiasts have been saying that last Thursday the party won LE2018 and if it had been had a general election then Corbyn would be the one being called to the Palace. This is based on the unfounded and somewhat arrogant assumption by LAB that all the SNP, LD, PC and GRN MPs would simply line…

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Tomorrow is the third anniversary of David Cameron winning a majority, here’s a few charts for your perusal

Tomorrow is the third anniversary of David Cameron winning a majority, here’s a few charts for your perusal

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It appears some people need educating on what a good electoral performance is & how it compares to past results, well I'm here to help. Especially with tomorrow being the third anniversary of Cameron winning a majority. The last time the parties won a majority 1/3 pic.twitter.com/QwmfiXvqJP — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 6, 2018 The last time the parties won a working majority. 2/3 pic.twitter.com/9McVuZLsXe — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 6, 2018 Assuming the next general election is in 2022 by then…

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Some will they stay or will they go in 2018 markets

Some will they stay or will they go in 2018 markets

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I like these type of markets where you can bet on whether or not X will be in their current job on a certain date. William Hill are offering such markets on Theresa May, Boris Johnson, Jeremy Hunt, and John Bercow. Because of Brexit and Mrs May’s plans for our customs arrangement with the EU which could see her toppled by the ERG wing of the party makes me loathe to back any options for May, Johnson, and Hunt staying…

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If you want to compare main party/leader performances from past elections use this chart based on the CON + LAB aggregate

If you want to compare main party/leader performances from past elections use this chart based on the CON + LAB aggregate

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No Owen, Corbyn’s GE2017 performance didn’t match Blair’s at GE2001 Last night in a discussion on LE2018 on Newsnight the Oxford-educated Corbyn cheerleader, Owen Jones, sought to suggest that his man’s performance at the 2017 General Election was comparable with what Tony Blair achieved in 2001. He did it by taking the national percentage vote shares rather than looking at seat total or size of majority or some other measure. Certainly LAB got 40.3% at GE2017 compared with Blair’s 40.7%…

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