Unofficial monster raving loonies. Decoding the Brexit customs union row

Unofficial monster raving loonies. Decoding the Brexit customs union row

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NEW: Government to announce tomorrow it will bring back all the Brexit Bills next month to put to the Commons – facing down the (a?) customs union rebels… rebels though are confident they will win. ERG wanted it, now we get considerable fireworks in June. 1922 told today — Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) 23 May 2018 So that would be decisions on 15 Lords amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill but also some MPs have been told its the long lost…

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By-election punters should check the form before risking their cash

By-election punters should check the form before risking their cash

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There have only been five Westminster by-elections which have been contested by the main parties since the Brexit referendum and the average party changes are shown in the chart above. As can be seen there have been much bigger movements in constituencies which voted Remain than those which voted Leave. In the former, both in CON held seats seats, the LDs did particularly well picking up one gain with the Tory vote sharply down. What we haven’t had is a…

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Pulpstar says the Tories look value at 13-8 in the Lewisham match bet

Pulpstar says the Tories look value at 13-8 in the Lewisham match bet

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Anyone for a couple of Lewisham East match bets? #LewishamEastByElection UKIP 1/2 vs For Britain 6/4Lib Dems 4/7 vs Tories 13/10 pic.twitter.com/eVz4ICdRIz — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) May 22, 2018 The by-election in Lewisham East is attracting a lot of attention on twitter for Labour’s woes in candidate selection, and also some unfortunate tweets by the CLP chair dug up by Owen Jones. How much attention will the average voter there pay to this ? Very little is the runaway favourite…

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A sign of LAB confidence in Lewisham East: Local party chief gets sacked days before the postals go out

A sign of LAB confidence in Lewisham East: Local party chief gets sacked days before the postals go out

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Given that the outgoing MP, Heidi Alexander, secured 69% of the vote at GE2017 it has been very hard to predict anything other than a Labour hold. That was why, in the eyes of many, the party’s selection battle was the real fight. That was completed on Saturday when the local party chose Lewisham’s, deputy mayor ahead of the Momentum backed candidate as well as the one supported by Unite – an outcome that’s been seen as a bit of…

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On the betting markets punters don’t buy the speculation that there’ll be a 2018 election

On the betting markets punters don’t buy the speculation that there’ll be a 2018 election

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Betdata.io A vote this year is rated as just an 11% chance At the weekend we saw reports in the media about the possibility of the huge divide in the Conservative over Brexit being of such a magnitude that an early, 2018, general election was the only way of ending it. I thought the Sunday Times report was over-egged simply because Mrs. May was so scarred by her failure to retain the Tory majority last year that there were no…

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Ken Livingstone, the ex-mayor who keeps talking about Hitler, quits the Labour party

Ken Livingstone, the ex-mayor who keeps talking about Hitler, quits the Labour party

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Ken Livingstone has announced that he is resigning from the Labour Party saying the issues around his suspension for alleged anti-Semitism had become a "distraction" — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) May 21, 2018 Former London mayor Ken Livingstone says he does not accept the allegation that he has brought the Labour Party into disrepute or that he is "in any way guilty of anti-Semitism" — Sky News Breaking (@SkyNewsBreak) May 21, 2018 Labour MP John Mann has told Sky News…

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Of the last 22 published voting intention polls LAB has led in just one

Of the last 22 published voting intention polls LAB has led in just one

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Now increasing CON leads have become the norm The above table from Wikipedia shows the published national voting intention polls over the past three months. What is very striking is how there are almost no surveys showing Corbyn’s party ahead at the moment. That compares with January when LAB led in six and was tied in two. We are coming to a point in a parliament when oppositions need to be recording solid leads if they are to have any…

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Polling boost for TMay as she takes a “best PM” lead amongst young voters for first time since GE2017

Polling boost for TMay as she takes a “best PM” lead amongst young voters for first time since GE2017

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Corbyn could be losing his advantages with the youth vote The narrative that started following the shock general election result last June was that Corbyn and his party had managed tap into the youth vote who were turning out in greater numbers than at recent elections. Much of this can be seen in looking at the age splits to leadership ratings and who would make the best prime minister findings from different pollsters since the election. Certainly up to now…

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