Aylsham on Broadland (Con defence) Result: Lib Dem 1,018 (46% +15% on last time), Con 865 (39% +7% on last time), Lab 328 (15% -7% on last time) (No UKIP candidate this time -15%) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 153 (7%) on a swing of 4% from Con to Lib Dem) Cowfold, Shermanbury and West Grinstead on Horsham (Con defence) Result: Con 661 (68% -3% on last time), Lab 158 (16%, no candidate last time), Lib…
Rebel Tory MPs have lost a sense of reality if they think an election will improve their position Politics is supposed to be the art of the possible. In one sense that’s just a truism: that which happens is, by definition, within the bounds of the possible. However, this week’s shown up again that Bismarck’s aphorism is only true to a degree. There are plenty of politicians who are not interested in the possible but only in their own priorities….
From a 3.7% chance to 9%+ in just 25 days Following a glowing write-up by Fraser Nelson in The Telegraph this morning there’s been a lot of been a fair bit of betting interest in the Home Secretary for next Conservative leader. This is from the Nelson piece in which he looks at how Javid is handling his new job: “His first change – rhetorical style – is relatively easy. The bigger test will be if he can win the…
Thanks to Liverpool getting through to the Champion’s league final and the ongoing series of strikes on SNCF – the French railway system we have a problem this weekend running PB. TSE is off to Kiev to support his beloved Liverpool while I am having to bring my holiday forward by two days so our train trip down to Andalusia won’t be disrupted by the strikes. The result is there is no one “on duty” over the weekend. So we…
The latest Scotland only polls have LAB down in third place The biggest impact on the Labour-Conservative seat balance in the past decade was the virtual wipeout of LAB north of the border at GE2015. Five years earlier at GE2010 when Labour lost power there were, extraordinarily, no seat changes at all north of the border with what was then Gordon Brown’s party retaining all 41 seats that it held on an overall increased Scottish vote share. The SNP had…
I have been reminded that it is now more than a year a year since we had a PB gathering. In recent years these have taken place in pubs in central London where Fat Steve has arranged for a specific area to be allocated to us. He has done a sterling job making the arrangements but alas he is now working overseas. Has anybody got any ideas for a future event and is there someone who is based in London…
Leo Barasi of the PB/Polling Matters podcast sets out his reasons Leo Barasi, a regular with Keiran Pedley on the PB/Polling Matters Podcasts is no stranger to PBers and his is always worth listening to. He’s posted on his “Noise of the Crowd” blog observations about the ComRes poll that featured in yesterday’s Daily Mail. He writes: The fundamental problem is that the questions were nearly all one-sided agree/disagree questions, with each one loaded against the Lords and Remainers. A…
The polling average narrows The Betfair betting exchange get tighter For the past year or so many people have been predicting that the US midterms, the elections that take place exactly 2 years after a presidential election, would not be very good for Mr Trump. In particular the House of Representatives, which is currently controlled by the Republicans, looked set to flip and that would frustrate enormously legislative objectives of the presidency. The Senate comma though, is a different matter….