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Speaker cornered. Time for John Bercow to stand down as Speaker

24/6/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

I have a soft spot for John Bercow, located somewhere around my wallet. Over the years he has been a steady source of income for me as he has survived in office as Speaker, despite the noises off that regularly come from Conservative backwoodsmen harrumphing about his supposed rudeness and perceived unConservativeness. Despite abundant evidence that only a small minority were willing to put their heads above the parapet, enough Bercowphobes were regularly willing to put money on the proposition…

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A year ago BoJo was hot favourite for PM: Now those concerned about Brexit jobs are being told “F**k business”

23/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Boris's response to the Airbus decision – "F**k business" ' | via @telegraph https://t.co/NT7QO6kEwP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 23, 2018 The TMay successor betting since GE17 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

If you can’t join them, beat them: Denmark, football, Maastricht and Brexit’s genesis

23/6/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

David Herdson looks back to 1992 They shouldn’t even have been there, and had it not been for the disintegration of Yugoslavia, they wouldn’t have been. However, they didn’t let their second chance go to waste and as the leaders of the twelve EC members met in Lisbon, the plucky Danes overturned the natural order of things and defeated Germany’s assumed unstoppable progress. As metaphors went, the football team’s 2-0 victory was perfect. 24 days earlier, the Danish electorate had…

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Punters now make it a 63% chance that the UK will leave the EU on March 29th next year

22/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io The big unknown now is the Leave campaign funding investigation As can be seen from the chart the Brexit “will it happen on time” market has seen a fair bit of turbulence since the start of the year with YES now a 67% chance. The recent bumps have been cause by the progress of the exit bill through both houses of parliament. At the moment the one thing that we know about that could cause movement is the Electoral…

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Survation Brexit anniversary poll has REMAIN 5% ahead

22/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Chart – Survation By 48% to 25% those polled want a referendum on the final deal Tomorrow’s the second anniversary of the Brexit referendum and expect a number of polls seeking to gauge opinion now. First out is Survation for Good Morning Britain which finds that if the referendum was rerun today the UK would remain in the EU, for the first time since March with Survation. Leave 47% (-2); Remain 53% (+2) Significant percentages (36%-43%) of respondents have a…

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Just 19% of current LAB voters think the vote to leave the EU was right

21/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

You’ve got to marvel at Team Corbyn’s ambivalence Just 19% of Labour voters in today’s YouGov poll think that the decision to leave the EU was right with 72% saying wrong. I think this is the widest split there’s been. Yet in spite of being out of line with party supporters the leadership has pursued an approach to Brexit that is very different. The remarkable thing is that this has not become an issue. Voters in most of the LAB…

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Michael Bloomberg to spend $80m helping the Democrats in key races at the November midterms

21/6/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

https://youtu.be/pPyzZjeH1d4 Could this help turn the tide? For nearly a year the betting markets have made a Democratic party House win in November’s midterm the favourite. These, of course, are the key elections that come up half way through a presidential term when the whole of the House is up for election as well as about a third of the Senate. The Democrats margin has narrowed very sharply on Betfair but the blues are still just ahead. From the betting…

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NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: NHS funding, ‘Brexit dividends’ and UK drugs policy

21/6/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at public opinion on the NHS as it hits 70 years old in light of the government’s promise to pump in extra cash. Keiran takes us through what the public think of the policy and whether they would accept tax rises to pay for it alongside data on how perceptions of the quality of care provided by the NHS have changed over time. Later in the…

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