Ian Whittaker on why Esther McVey might be the one to watch David’s piece yesterday was very insightful on the mechanics for how a new Conservative leader could be elected. I wanted to add a few thoughts on what has happened over the past week, and what are the betting implications on the political front. First of all, standing back, the last week has been, objectively, a disaster for Theresa May. That may seem harsh and it puts me odd…
So: Brexit. I’ve artfully avoided addressing it in my videos so far, but the time has come. Today’s video is about Brexit. Specifically, it addresses the process through which Britain joined the EEC, and then asks what the UK government actually wants from negotiations. Why have there been all these gyrations, when the EU has proposed a CETA/South Korea type relationship already? Be warned: this video will be equally annoying to Remainers and Leavers. Robert Smithson Robert tweets as ‘@MarketWarbles’…
With the pressure on Mrs Mays leadership there has been renewed interest in who will succeed her and a change in the favourite on the Betfair exchange. The previous long-term favourite, who was edged out by Javid, Rees-Mogg is now back there as the one the punters most fancy. A lot of course depends on when a contest takes place and it has been interesting that Moggsy’s hard brexit faction has not been ready to “press the button” on a…
We shouldn’t assume that the next one will follow the path of the previous Theresa May has had a surprisingly good week. For one thing, she’s still prime minister. This is, admittedly, setting the bar quite low but it was nothing like a foregone conclusion that she’d still be safe in post today, this time last week. Instead, she’s being praised for handling Trump’s visit with tact and dignity despite his provocations. That comes on top of the government having…
What a strange day with several massive demonstrations in London, Trump describing many of his comments in the Sun this morning as fake news and the events at Chequers and Windsor castle. The sheer scale of the protests appears quite exceptional and, of course, there is another round of them tomorrow. This, of course, was in sharp contrast to the pomp and Ceremony of the President’s meeting with the Queen. I find it difficult to draw conclusions and maybe we…
Data and charts from Betda.io Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Given Trump’s unpopularity in the UK this might just help TMay https://t.co/it50kll40a — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 13, 2018 Trump humiliates and undermines the Prime Minister of the UK, in cahoots with Farage and Boris. Horrible. — Charlie Falconer (@LordCFalconer) July 12, 2018 With the American President, Donald Trump, on the second day of his visit to the UK the Sun is carrying an extraordinary interview with the President in which he gives his views on how Mrs May should…
TMay drops to her lowest favourability level yet I am really glad that YouGov has returned to doing favorability ratings because I believe that this is the best measure of how leaders, in particular, are being viewed. I can also take some ownership for the format because these were first initiated by the firm following suggestions from me a couple of years ago. Favorability ratings, of course, are the main measure used by American posters to test the political water….