PaddyPower clearly doesn’t understand the CON leadership rules

PaddyPower clearly doesn’t understand the CON leadership rules

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If TMay loses a confidence vote then she can’t be a contender It is perhaps not surprising given the scale of the story at the time was but whenever people think of Conservative leadership contests and disposal of incumbents they look back to 1990 when Mrs Thatcher had to depart. Hence that is the only reason, I suggest, that Paddy Power in the latest range of markets following the David Davis resignation have included Theresa May as a potential candidate…

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David Davis quits possibly making a challenge to TMay more likely

David Davis quits possibly making a challenge to TMay more likely

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He was the 4/1 favourite for next exit The big UK political news overnight is that the BrexSec and former favourite to succeed TMay, David Davis, has resigned as a minister following his disagreement with the PM’s approach to Brexit. Another of his ministers, Steve Baker, has gone with him. This plunges the party into its biggest crisis since Mrs. May failed to hang onto to the Tory majority in June last year. The move happened just before midnight and…

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There signs are that TMay might have to face a confidence motion in the next few days

There signs are that TMay might have to face a confidence motion in the next few days

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Sources confirm letters calling for vote of confidence in @theresa_may leadership going in to @Graham__Brady, chair of 1922. Tory Brexiters very unhappy – accuse PM of traducing those who voted to leave EU. This appears to be spontaneous, not coralled by ERG & @Jacob_Rees_Mogg — Robert Peston (@Peston) July 8, 2018 So far Peston hasn’t moved the PM exit betting ITV’s Political Editor, Robert Preston, is Tweeting that there might be a confidence move about to take place against TMay….

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The fly in the ointment? How Brexit may be delayed by no deal

The fly in the ointment? How Brexit may be delayed by no deal

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For the last year or so, one of my favourite betting markets has been the market on Betfair on whether Britain will leave the EU by 11pm on 29 March 2019.  I wrote about it in February and it has been a market that I have returned to regularly over the intervening months.  The price on Yes, Britain will officially leave by that date has shortened considerably since February and as I write last traded at 1.83.  I still think…

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Three Lions: just maybe

Three Lions: just maybe

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HwBqf7f294 The perfect football song to capture the national mood I should start by apologising to Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish. This is a thread about England. It is also a thread about the continual disappointment and thwarted dreams that England’s national football team has visited on its fans so on that basis, perhaps fans from elsewhere will forgive me. On one level, England’s record in major football finals tournaments is quite impressive. Today’s match is the seventeenth time that…

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May’s Straw Man

May’s Straw Man

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The Chequers Brexit Plan is about winning the blame game Works away days invariably disappoint their participants and for all the beauty of the surroundings, the cabinet’s day out at Chequers won’t have been much different. Twelve hours of intensive discussions in literal hot-house conditions, to hammer out a Brexit policy that they could all stick to is surely no-one’s idea of fun. Even those politicians who have long dreamt of Britain leaving the European Union, the agreement of a…

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So a cabinet Brexit deal is done and there are no resignations

So a cabinet Brexit deal is done and there are no resignations

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The Cabinet has signed up to the May plan for Brexit. Question we don’t yet know the answer to – why did Brexiteers agree to a plan they dislike? Is it because they think it will be rejected by the EU? If so, May has won battle but war far from over. https://t.co/y5moqza7hs — Nick Robinson (@bbcnickrobinson) July 6, 2018 Breaking: PM says Cabinet has agreed "a UK-EU free trade area which establishes a common rule book for industrial goods…

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