Betting on will there be a Tory leadership contest in 2018

Betting on will there be a Tory leadership contest in 2018

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Why I’m betting on no leadership contest in 2018. Paddy Power’s market on whether there will be a Tory leadership contest in 2018 intrigues me. I’ve confirmed with them the precise terms of this bet. A vote of no confidence being called will not be enough, what needs to happen is for either Mrs May to lose a vote of confidence or resign and the Chairman of the 1922 committee to start accepting nominations for Mrs May’s successor. After Chequers…

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This poll just about sums Brexit up – 60% don’t care what happens over Brexit they just want it to be over

This poll just about sums Brexit up – 60% don’t care what happens over Brexit they just want it to be over

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As the issue rolls on and on, do you just want #Brexit to be finished? From yesterday's @BBCWestminHour with @EllieJPrice, six out of ten agreed that they no longer care how or when we leave – they just want it over and done with. That rises to three quarters of leavers. pic.twitter.com/JJGUcbfdN7 — Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) August 6, 2018 This is good news for TMay I’m starting to like some of the original output from DeltaPoll – the new pollster…

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PB Video Analysis: How Bad Is The US-China Trade Deficit?

PB Video Analysis: How Bad Is The US-China Trade Deficit?

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The US runs a trade deficit with China of $375bn. It’s a staggering number, larger than the economies of Ireland or Israel. Little wonder than Donald Trump frets that the US is being taken advantage of. But how meaningful are bilateral trade numbers anyway? Should governments aim to balance volumes of trade with other countries, or is it all a bit irrelevant? And if you impose tariffs on countries with whom you have deficits, will your overall balance of trade…

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Answering a poll question is NOT the same as having an opinion

Answering a poll question is NOT the same as having an opinion

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Unsurprising titbit in here – an MP thinks the public have a view on ‘Chequers’. No. Answering a poll question. is not the same as having an actual opinion. https://t.co/IBS1uB1uW0 — James Morris (@jamesdmorris) August 10, 2018 The above tweet from former Labour Party pollster James Morris strikes me as being very apposite and goes to the heart of how we use polling outcomes. For unless there is some effort within the poll to ascertain how strongly people feel about…

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YouGov finds that just half of those who voted LAB at GE2017 choose Corbyn as “Best PM”

YouGov finds that just half of those who voted LAB at GE2017 choose Corbyn as “Best PM”

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The detailed data from the latest YouGov Times poll shows that when asked just 50% those sampled who voted Labour at the last election chose Corbyn in response to who would make the Best PM. This is the worst polling for the LAB leader since the election and has Corbyn showing the same sorts of ratings from past party voters as Ed Miliband was getting ahead of GE2015. This is all a long way from the post-GE2017 polling when Corbyn’s…

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Tonight’s YouGov has the worst LAB voting figures and the worst Corbyn best PM rating since GE17

Tonight’s YouGov has the worst LAB voting figures and the worst Corbyn best PM rating since GE17

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Times YouGov pollCON 39%+1LAB 35%-3LD 10%= — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2018 New YouGov Times poll best PM rating has Corbyn at 22% his worst rating since GE17. TMay on 36% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2018 It is hard to conclude other than that the ongoing row within Labour over anti-semitism is taking its toll. It is a general rule that parties that appear to be split lose support from voters and the news from the red…

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The prospect of Johnson as leader should make Theresa’s position a bit more secure

The prospect of Johnson as leader should make Theresa’s position a bit more secure

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How many are going to no confidence her if he’s alternative? Much has been written about the incredible resilience of Theresa May who has managed to hang on to her job now for well over a year after losing the party it’s majority in the June 2017 general election. She became a contender in the post referendum Conservative leadership race in July 2016 with her backers arguing that she was the one for the party to get behind in order…

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Those whom the Gods wish to destroy. What happens next now that Britain has gone mad

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy. What happens next now that Britain has gone mad

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At Deltapoll, we asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the #EU and peace in #NorthernIreland. Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important. #Brexit pic.twitter.com/0FqMJAJZgN — Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) July 31, 2018 So now we know.  A majority of Leavers are stark staring bonkers.  The signs had always been there: the swivel-eyed attacks on the judiciary as enemies of the people for giving judgment in a case, on the governor of…

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