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UKIP might be edging back in the polls but was the biggest vote loser in the July 2018 Local By-Elections

2/8/2018 Editor Comments 0 Comment

July 2018 Local By-Election Summary Conservatives 13,142 votes (37% +3% on last time) winning 11 seats (-1 seat on last time) Labour 11,198 votes (31% +2% on last time) winning 9 seats (-1 seat on last time) Liberal Democrats 5,670 votes (16% +5% on last time) winning 3 seats (+1 seat on last time) Independent Candidates 2,278 votes (6% +3% on last time) winning 2 seats (+2 seats on last time) Green Party 862 votes (2% -5% on last time)…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Are the public turning against Brexit and what do they think of communism?

1/8/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

This week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast is split into three parts. In part one: Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi discuss this week’s Sky Data poll and look at the evidence for whether the public really are turning against Brexit or not and what this might mean for the debate in Westminster. In part two: Keiran and Leo look at some exclusive PB / Opinium polling on different political systems and ideologies. What do the public think about socialism and…

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TMay has taken a hammering in YouGov’s “best PM” tracker but Corbyn has dropped by nearly as much

1/8/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Tory Brexit split and LAB antisemitism one are taking their toll Above is a YouGov table showing all the published “Best PM” ratings since the start of the year. As can be seen both main party leaders have taken a tumble and the gap between them is almost what it was. The timing is interesting. The TMay drop has happened in the post-Chequers environment and was largely in July. Corbyn’s decline has more gradual. The big message from where…

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BoJo back on top of the ConHome preferred next leader ratings

1/8/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Up from 8% to 29% in a month Former Mayor of London and former foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, who quit the cabinet last month over the Chequers deal, has seen a remarkable upsurge in his fortunes in the monthly ConservativeHome survey of preferred next leader survey. He’s now on 29% up from the 8% of a month ago. These monthly surveys are proving to be hugely volatile but interesting all the same. Sajid Javid the previous number one dropped two…

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Just out: new PB/Polling Matters survey from Opinium on political ideologies/systems

31/7/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

PB /Opinium: Based on your knowledge, do you have a positive or negative view of the following political ideologies or systems? (net positive) Social Democracy +22Liberal Democracy +11Capitalism -7Socialism -11Libertarianism -14Communism -52Anarchism -55Fascism -67 — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) July 31, 2018 Headlines:1) These terms mean little to a good chunk of people2) Numbers rely on individual interpretation of what terms mean3) Social democracy most popular: more so than socialism4) But socialism & capitalism neck & neck4) Communism, fascism and anarchism…

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Leave voters rate leaving the EU as more important than peace in Northern Ireland

31/7/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

At Deltapoll, we asked Leave voters in Britain to choose between leaving the #EU and peace in #NorthernIreland. Nearly 6 out of 10 said the UK leaving the EU was more important. #Brexit pic.twitter.com/0FqMJAJZgN — Joe Twyman (@JoeTwyman) July 31, 2018 Do they really want a return to the killings? I must say that I find the above poll finding quite shocking. It is a reflection on just how our memories can fade and also my age. The troubles in…

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The Brexit day party

31/7/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Looming over the back of all the sound and fury of our day to day politics is the inexorable approach of Brexit day. The 29th of March 2019 will be the day when something happens, maybe. We will start an orderly transition to somewhere, or an abrupt and disorderly crunch into somewhere else. There will be some kind of Brexit that might happen, whether it’s hard or soft (my personal bet is on squidgy). Unless we get an extension, which…

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Javid now back as favourite to succeed TMay

30/7/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io Even if Mrs May survives as Conservative leader until after Brexit we could still be less than 9 months away from a leadership contest that would choose not just the blue team’s flag carrier but, of course, the Prime Minister. As can be seen from the chart which plots Betfair changes over the past month there is an incredible amount of movement with money going in and out of one candidate after another. I’ve long felt that the former…

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