The first forecast for the midterms gives the Democrats a 75% chance of winning back the House

The first forecast for the midterms gives the Democrats a 75% chance of winning back the House

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The US election forecasting site 538 issues its first projection for the House Race in this year's midterms.https://t.co/7Fgl3lPy64 pic.twitter.com/ZFoQe2eReF — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 17, 2018 On Betfair punters make it a 61% punt In spite of all that is going on in UK politics at the betting markets here continue to make the US midterms in November the most popular betting event. This is not surprising. There’s a high UK interest in US and the White House races can…

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Scotland and the electoral system: Why winning the next GE is huge ask of LAB

Scotland and the electoral system: Why winning the next GE is huge ask of LAB

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The system bias is now strongly pro-CON We all recall that at the 2005 general election Tony Blair’s Labour won the GB vote by a margin of just 3% but that was enough to give them an overall majority of 64. There was little doubt that the electoral system then favoured the red team. Things have changed dramatically with the collapse of the LDs and the post-IndyRef rise of the SNP. Even without the proposed new boundaries the electoral system…

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Outsiders have rarely become PM – but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t have done

Outsiders have rarely become PM – but that doesn’t mean they couldn’t have done

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By Photo: Sergeant Tom Robinson Besides, the ‘rules’ might be changing TSE wrote last week that “on all seven occasions since World War II when parties have changed PM mid-term, the new PM has always been an incumbent of a great office of state”. He might have gone further. Other than in war-time, with two exceptions, every prime minister between Palmerston and May who succeeded a member of their own party or coalition, had either been Chancellor or Foreign Secretary…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Silly season. What conspiracy theories do Brits believe? Plus Boris makes tea and “wreath-gate”

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Silly season. What conspiracy theories do Brits believe? Plus Boris makes tea and “wreath-gate”

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters show Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi take a different approach to the podcast and look at public opinion on conspiracy theories using some exclusive polling from Opinium. How many Brits think the earth is flat? Is Elvis alive? Were the mood landings faked? Is Paul dead? Is Nessie real? Our podcasters find out the answers, plus which conspiracy theory has less than half thinking it is false…you can listen to the conspiracy theory…

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Comedy Central’s answer to the Vote Leave Brexit bus

Comedy Central’s answer to the Vote Leave Brexit bus

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The worry for leavers is if this meme catches on A key part in Leave’s narrow victory at the referendum was its success in portraying negative comments about leaving the EU as “Project Fear”. That was two and a quarter years ago and now the Brexit date of March 29 2019 is not that far off. Nobody appears to know what is going to happen and many are fearful of uncertainty. The political situation at Westminster, how the EU might…

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PB Video Analysis: Five Things That Will Surprise You

PB Video Analysis: Five Things That Will Surprise You

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https://youtu.be/OCOFYFDLWic We’re all routinely wrong. Mostly that’s because we’re simply don’t know any better. But increasingly it’s the result of us reading things on Facebook, Twitter, and the like that push persuasive narratives. The stories make sense, so we believe them. But all too often, the data and stories don’t match. And when they don’t… well, our first instinct is to discard the data, looking for reasons why it’s not true. So this video looks at five things where reality…

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That YouGov CON 4% lead poll looks very much out of line

That YouGov CON 4% lead poll looks very much out of line

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An outlier or the a sign of the trend? One of the problems with polling analysis is that the outliers tend to get much more publicity and attention than those that are broadly in line with everybody else. We saw that with the latest YouGov poll showeding Labour down at its lowest level since the general election four Points behind the Conservatives. So I thought it a good idea to try to put it into context by reproducing the latest…

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