Gains for the LDs and Greens the highlights of this week’s local elections

Gains for the LDs and Greens the highlights of this week’s local elections

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Caol and Mallig on Highland (SNP defence) First Preferences: Con 183 (9% unchanged on last time), Lib Dem 658 (31% +22% on last time), Campbell (Ind) 98 (5%), MacKinnon (Ind) 146 (7%), SNP 574 (27%, Wood (Ind) 454 (21%) (No Lab candidate this time -6%, Total Independent vote: 698 (33% -19% on last time) Liberal Democrat lead of 84 (4%) on a swing of 20.5% from Ind to Lib Dem No candidate elected on first count, Campbell (Ind) eliminated Second…

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By 61-19 those sampled by YouGov say it should be legal to use force to kill in defence of home

By 61-19 those sampled by YouGov say it should be legal to use force to kill in defence of home

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Clearly the Hither Green incident has attracted an enormous amount of attention and the news about the background of the person who was killed has also reinforced thinking. The party splits on this are hardly surprising with UKIP backers the most likely to support the notion and Lib Dems voters the least. The older you are, as you might expect the more likely you were in the poll to back the idea. Whether this will actually lead to legislation I…

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So much has been happening politically and yet there’s so little data for us to assess the reaction

So much has been happening politically and yet there’s so little data for us to assess the reaction

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For poll watchers this has been a frustrating period There was a discussion last night on Twitter about the fact that we seem to be seeing so few polls at the moment and this is felt more because so much been happening and those who follow the numbers want to get a sense of whether things are having an impact. How, for instance, is Labour’s vote holding up in the face of the ongoing antisemitism narrative which still rumbles on….

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Moggsy edges up to a new high in the next CON leader betting

Moggsy edges up to a new high in the next CON leader betting

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For the tihrd month in succession ConHome has him as favoured next CON leader We have not looked at this betting market for some time – who is going to be the next Conservative leader after Theresa May – and the latest ConHome survey with Rees-Mogg once again the favoured choice of members is a good peg. You should note that this is NOT an opinion poll and cannot be compared with, say, the recent YouGov LAB members’ survey. But…

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The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast

The latest PB/Polling Matters podcast

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi focus on recent polling of Labour members by YouGov looking at Corbyn’s job approval rating and their reactions to the recent anti-Semitism row engulfing the party. Leo looks at how these results compare to a similar survey this time last year and Keiran has a bone to pick with how the anti-Semitism numbers were presented in the media. Elsewhere on the show, Keiran and Leo discuss the latest revelations in the…

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Just under nine months to go for Toby Young to win his £15,000 “Boris will be CON leader by 2018” wager

Just under nine months to go for Toby Young to win his £15,000 “Boris will be CON leader by 2018” wager

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My money’s on Nigella Lawson, who accepted the bet, winning Fifteen years ago Toby Young had a bet of £15,000 with Nigella Lawson that Boris Johnson would become Tory leader by 2018. Well the days are ticking away and there are just eight months and 26 days to go for the event to happen and Young to pick up his winnings. In 2011 Tim Montgomerie wrote about the bet on ConHome quoting an article by Young in the Spectator:- Since…

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Don’t be tempted by the Corbyn exit in 2018 bets – he’s as strong as ever within the party

Don’t be tempted by the Corbyn exit in 2018 bets – he’s as strong as ever within the party

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Normally when a leader starts to get into a bit of trouble the enterprising bookmakers begin issuing prices on how long they will survive. We saw that a lot in October after Mrs Mays rather disastrous conference speech. What happened? she sailed through riding the storm and is still there looking even more secure than ever. So although Corbyn has had a less than optimal month, with his response to the Salisbury incident and of course the latest antisemitism issues,…

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