2019 now rated as a 44% chance as the year that TMay ceases to be PM

2019 now rated as a 44% chance as the year that TMay ceases to be PM

Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io Could she go all the way to 2022? This is one of those betting markets that we return to time and time again. Because clearly there cannot be a leadership contest without a vacancy and at the moment Theresa May is sticking in there and looks reasonably certain to remain until Brexit. I find it somewhat amusing when I get correspondence from bookmakers and Boris backer, Arron Banks, alerting me to a leadership fight within the next 3 months….

Read More Read More

Just 19% of LAB voters believe Israel’s more to blame for the lack progress on Middle East peace than the Palestinians

Just 19% of LAB voters believe Israel’s more to blame for the lack progress on Middle East peace than the Palestinians

Comments 0 Comment

Sure the Deltapoll for Prospect finds that three times as many LAB voters than CON ones blame Israel but it is the huge “both equally” numbers that are a surprise. Here as the chart shows there’s really not that much difference between supporters of the two main parties and the whole sample. This does suggest at the very minimum that this is far from the top of most people’s concerns. Given the polling it is hard to disagree with Martin…

Read More Read More

What happens next if not much happens?

What happens next if not much happens?

Comments 0 Comment

Like the media, we are attracted to drama. What if Trump is impeached? What if No Deal Brexit leads to economic meltdown? What if both major parties split? What if the EU collapses? But what if none of that happens? The instinct of people in power is to avoid chaos on their watch if possible. Cans are kicked down the road. Fudge is prepared in industrial quantities. Suppose that rule applies here, specifically to Brexit. A deal is done in…

Read More Read More

Allies of Boris worried that Tory MPs will practice safe X to avoid waking up with a dumb blonde

Allies of Boris worried that Tory MPs will practice safe X to avoid waking up with a dumb blonde

Comments 0 Comment

Tory bosses urged to change leadership rules so Boris Johnson will have a better chance of being next PM https://t.co/NJvTscWK9n — Sun Politics (@SunPolitics) August 19, 2018 As long as MPs exclusively control who the final two candidates sent to the members are the leadership ambitions of Boris are set to be unfulfilled. For me the most interesting political story this week from a British standpoint was the desire of some supporters of Boris wishing to change the Tory leadership…

Read More Read More

New polling analysis finds that enthusiasm for Brexit amongst working class voters is fading

New polling analysis finds that enthusiasm for Brexit amongst working class voters is fading

Comments 0 Comment

Ammunition for those pressing for a change in LAB’s stance? The data in this chart above has been extrapolated by the political scientist, Prof Matt Goodwin and shows a pretty clear picture about the view on Brexit amongst the C2DEs – working class voters. It was this group, of course, that turned most strikingly against staying in the EU during the referendum campaign so any change here could have some political significance. I congratulate Matt on picking up the trend…

Read More Read More

A Labour split would have one chance to succeed – but succeed it could

A Labour split would have one chance to succeed – but succeed it could

Comments 0 Comment

FPTP is not an insuperable barrier in the right conditions Anyone remember the Pro Euro Conservatives? The Party was formed by two former Tory MEPs opposed to the direction that William Hague was taking the party on Europe. After a good deal more media interest than was due for a tiny splinter party – mainly, presumably, because it allowed a new angle on the never-ending internal Tory conflict on Europe – they polled 1.3% at the 1999 European elections, lost…

Read More Read More

Be thankful you are not a LAB party press officer having to make excuses for the leader day after day

Be thankful you are not a LAB party press officer having to make excuses for the leader day after day

Comments 0 Comment

Why the latest on Corbyn and Jewish people is different – good from @Dannythefink https://t.co/3LY6vpDWNg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 24, 2018 What strikes me about Corbyn’s speech is that he’s talking about people who have lived here for a very long tine, but who don’t understand our irony. So obviously they’re not people he considers indigenous, they are the “other.” He’s talking about Jews. This is anti Semitism — Eddie Marsan (@eddiemarsan) August 23, 2018 Danny Finkelstein hits the…

Read More Read More