In the only 2018 polls to be tested against real results LAB shares were overstated by 7%+

In the only 2018 polls to be tested against real results LAB shares were overstated by 7%+

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GE17 LAB polling understatement doesn’t mean that the same will happen next time One of the things that true believer Corbynistas keep telling me on Twitter is that last year’s general election was a turning point in British politics and that the rules have changed. Thus anything that doesn’t fit into this narrative has to be swept away and dismissed. A key point here is current polling both voting intention and leader ratings which don’t support the contention that their…

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My 66/1 longshot for WH2020 now favourite for the Democratic nomination and 2nd favourite for the Presidency

My 66/1 longshot for WH2020 now favourite for the Democratic nomination and 2nd favourite for the Presidency

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While I was on holiday I was grateful that TSE Tweeted my post from January 18th 2017, two days before Trump was inaugurated, on my long-shot bet for WH2020 – Senator Kamala Harris of California. On Betfair Harris is currently a 16% chance for the nomination and 10% to become next president. In November 2016 she became the second black woman and first Indian American elected to serve in the Senate. She’s a former Attorney-General for California and is the…

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Betfair punters make it about an evens chance that TMay will be out next year – I’m not tempted

Betfair punters make it about an evens chance that TMay will be out next year – I’m not tempted

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A no confidence move is highly risky for any plotters One of the great jobs of returning from a longish holiday is reviewing how things have changed while you’ve been away and the biggest move over the past three weeks is how the Chequers Brexit plan is gathering support. Maybe the Mail was following rather than leading. TMay’s big gamble might just succeed. What is this going to do to her future career prospects? It is being widely said within…

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Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015 levels

Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015 levels

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And will young voter enthusiasm be retained? Unlike Alastair Meeks on the previous thread I am far less certain that Labour, certainly under Corbyn, have a good chance of winning most seats, let alone getting a majority at the next election. The boundaries, the lack of any discernable progress in Scotland and the ongoing blowback from Corbyn’s cack-handed handling of the antisemitism issue are going to make it hard. This thread is about another potential challenge – the changes in…

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Ruthless People. The Conservatives lose a leadership contender

Ruthless People. The Conservatives lose a leadership contender

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https://twitter.com/MarkDiStef/status/1041072314769502208 I have an announcement to make. Sadly I do not foresee circumstances in which I shall be standing to be leader of the Conservative party. This is no doubt a great loss to them, despite my having no ministerial experience, not being an MP or even being a member of the Conservative party. But they will have to struggle on without me. The bemusement you are, I expect, feeling was not matched when Ruth Davidson similarly ruled herself out….

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Et tu, John? Is another JC set to get stabbed in the back by a close ally?

Et tu, John? Is another JC set to get stabbed in the back by a close ally?

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Well this is very interesting. 'Allies of McDonnell claim he has become increasingly frustrated with Corbyn and his team over their botched handling of the anti-semitism row this summer, which overshadowed a carefully planned grid of policy announcements'. https://t.co/WlZKpJoRxK pic.twitter.com/wyCug9xTV6 — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 16, 2018 The truly great, such as Caesar & Thatcher, are removed from power by their allies stabbing them in the back, is Corbyn about to join that club? The Sunday Times reports While those who…

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With just over six months to go until Brexit day YouGov looks where the public stands

With just over six months to go until Brexit day YouGov looks where the public stands

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1/ Public opinion has drifted slightly against Brexit. On average this year there has been a 3 point lead of those who think Britain was wrong to vote for Brexit over those who think Britain was right to do so https://t.co/3SXfJa1bAf pic.twitter.com/yaBm2gLrEP — YouGov (@YouGov) September 12, 2018 2/ While Theresa May comes in for constant criticism over the Brexit negotiations, few Brits (22-27%) actually think that a different leader would have done any better https://t.co/3SXfJa1bAf pic.twitter.com/RbjRgKG31O — YouGov (@YouGov)…

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Betting on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next general election

Betting on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next general election

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Ladbrokes have a market up on Labour’s GB wide share of the vote at the next election and this is a market I’m going to avoid for the time being for the following known unknowns I’m not sure when the next general election is, I can see the next general election happening anywhere from this autumn to May 2022. You can see how the Brexit negotiations and votes therein can lead to an early election. I’m fairly certain the Tories…

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