TMay heads back from Salzburg looking more isolated than ever

TMay heads back from Salzburg looking more isolated than ever

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https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1042795267165233153?s=19 it feels pretty serious out here for the prospects of a deal – what's more worrying is it seems again the two sides have misunderstood each other's politics but, but, but, a lot of huffing and puffing and a bust up was probably inevitable at some point https://t.co/FocRTHE7c2 — Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) September 20, 2018 And the time is running out It is becoming harder and harder to work out how Britain’s exit from the EU will work out….

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How the readership of the main national papers are split on Brexit

How the readership of the main national papers are split on Brexit

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YouGov have just published a poll which shows how readers of different newspapers are viewing brexit and how they would vote in a new referendum. For some reason the Sun does not appear to be included. In broad terms the results are what you would expect with Guardian readers being staunchly for Remain while Express ones are for Leave. But there are some surprises. To me the big one is the Daily Telegraph where the split is 45% remain to…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Where do the Lib Dems go from here?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Where do the Lib Dems go from here?

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Keiran Pedley is joined by Mark Pack of the Lib Dem Newswire to discuss this week’s Lib Dem conference. Keiran and Mark discuss how the conference went and where the party goes from here and Mark gives everyone an outside tip on who the next Lib Dem leader might be when Vince Cable steps down. Listen to the latest episode here: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @MarkPack Tweet

Ashcroft US poll finds 53% saying there are grounds to believe that Trump committed crimes that would warrant impeachment

Ashcroft US poll finds 53% saying there are grounds to believe that Trump committed crimes that would warrant impeachment

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Nearly a half believe Trump campaign colluded with Russia & he was aware A 6k sample poll of US voters has just been published by Lord Ashcroft and sets the scene for the important midterm elections that take place in the first week in November. Currently the Democratic party is enjoying reasonable leads in generic Congressional polls and the betting is on the party re-taking control of the House. But a much tighter battle is taking place for control of…

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In the only 2018 polls to be tested against real results LAB shares were overstated by 7%+

In the only 2018 polls to be tested against real results LAB shares were overstated by 7%+

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GE17 LAB polling understatement doesn’t mean that the same will happen next time One of the things that true believer Corbynistas keep telling me on Twitter is that last year’s general election was a turning point in British politics and that the rules have changed. Thus anything that doesn’t fit into this narrative has to be swept away and dismissed. A key point here is current polling both voting intention and leader ratings which don’t support the contention that their…

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My 66/1 longshot for WH2020 now favourite for the Democratic nomination and 2nd favourite for the Presidency

My 66/1 longshot for WH2020 now favourite for the Democratic nomination and 2nd favourite for the Presidency

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While I was on holiday I was grateful that TSE Tweeted my post from January 18th 2017, two days before Trump was inaugurated, on my long-shot bet for WH2020 – Senator Kamala Harris of California. On Betfair Harris is currently a 16% chance for the nomination and 10% to become next president. In November 2016 she became the second black woman and first Indian American elected to serve in the Senate. She’s a former Attorney-General for California and is the…

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Betfair punters make it about an evens chance that TMay will be out next year – I’m not tempted

Betfair punters make it about an evens chance that TMay will be out next year – I’m not tempted

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A no confidence move is highly risky for any plotters One of the great jobs of returning from a longish holiday is reviewing how things have changed while you’ve been away and the biggest move over the past three weeks is how the Chequers Brexit plan is gathering support. Maybe the Mail was following rather than leading. TMay’s big gamble might just succeed. What is this going to do to her future career prospects? It is being widely said within…

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Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015 levels

Labour’s Oldies’ headache: Turnout levels reverting to GE2015 levels

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And will young voter enthusiasm be retained? Unlike Alastair Meeks on the previous thread I am far less certain that Labour, certainly under Corbyn, have a good chance of winning most seats, let alone getting a majority at the next election. The boundaries, the lack of any discernable progress in Scotland and the ongoing blowback from Corbyn’s cack-handed handling of the antisemitism issue are going to make it hard. This thread is about another potential challenge – the changes in…

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