politicalbetting.com – Page 775 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

To add to the current incendiary political mix Bercow is coming under pressure to resign

16/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Can he hang on? When the report on sexual harassment in the Palace of Westminster came out yesterday I thought that Bercow was extremely lucky over the timing. Everything at the moment is so focused on the critical stages in Britain’s exit from the EU that what in normal times would be a colossal political development was going to get sidelined. This morning’s newspapers suggest otherwise and my initial view was wrong. Although print circulations are drastically down on the…

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Some numbers to show the shallowness of the German car-markers’ Brexit argument

15/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Total VW car sales UK last year 208,462 Total VW car sales world wide 10.3m So the UK accounts for about of VW's production 2% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 15, 2018 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

To win the next election LAB need to find converts and it’s hard to see where these are coming from

15/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Current polling finds LAB shedding support – not gaining it With all the current speculation about a new election and the possibility of Corbyn becoming PM the latest polling is being sidelined and the question of where LAB’s required new support is going to come from is hardly mentioned. The shock result at the last election has impacted greatly on both main parties in very different ways. The Tories fear the Labour threat and can’t take comfort in their polling…

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Why I’m betting that that there is a greater than 35% chance that Brexit won’t happen next March 29th as planned

15/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

I think people are massively underestimating the impact of no deal with voters on a) the Tory brand b) the credibility of Brexit. Don’t underestimate the potential for many voters to shrug and say ‘it can’t be done so let’s not’. Not everyone of course but enough to shift votes. — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) October 14, 2018 If no deal becomes more likely the less chance of the date being met Another week starts with growing uncertainty over whether a…

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Will Theresa May be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory Party conference?

14/10/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Why I’m betting on Theresa May to still be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory party conference. This Paddy Power market is essentially a bet on Mrs May getting a deal done and passed in the Commons. Iff she manages to achieve those two things then I’d expect Mrs May and the Tories to get a boost in the polls so ditching her straight away might not be possible. With Boris Johnson confirming once again he is the modern day…

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A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017

14/10/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The most recent GB wide opinion polls, as collated by Wikipedia. https://t.co/XJhbZIFOjo pic.twitter.com/PK3Ng1vZTl — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 13, 2018 History suggests assuming Kippers will strongly back the Tories when UKIP don’t stand is a mistake. Since the announcement of the Chequers deal in July UKIP have experienced a bit of a polling surge with some polls having them polling 7% and 8% but generally in the 4% to 6% range. I’m expecting UKIP at the next general election will repeat…

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It looks as though TMay won’t be the only main party leader facing a Brexit rebellion. Corbyn’s has one as well

13/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This could be big. Indy reporting that some LAB MPs reveal they are ready to rescue TMay's Brexit deal in Commons vote. https://t.co/KYC0d9fiks — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2018 The Indy report names some LAB MPs: “Labour MPs told The Independent that at least 15 could rebel against Mr Corbyn and back the government, which could be enough to tip the balance in the Commons in favour of the deal. Hammond claims Brexit deal would deliver ‘economic bonus’ One…

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It had to come. West Virginia becomes the first state where people can vote by smartphone

13/10/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Politco is reporting that West Virginia will become the first state in the US where it will be possible to vote by smartphone in the crucial election on November 6th. An app has been created that will allow hundreds of overseas residents, members of the military stationed abroad and others to cast their ballots remotely. It is being emphasised that the app will rely on blockchain, which is the same technology technology that underpins Bitcoin. Politico reports that that this…

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