New YouGov polling finds that by 43% to 22% voters believe that Corbyn backs Remain

New YouGov polling finds that by 43% to 22% voters believe that Corbyn backs Remain

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And 4% think Farage has the same view Interesting polling from YouGov this morning on how prominent political figures are perceived to view Brexit. To me the most interesting findings are those relating to Jeremy Corbyn who is widely portrayed in parts of the media as a secret Brexit backer. The numbers here suggests that his ambivalence over the issue has really worked. No one will be really surprised by the Theresa May responses with her backing brexit by 48%…

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By 55% to 37% women say Kavanagh’s Supreme Court nomination should NOT be confirmed

By 55% to 37% women say Kavanagh’s Supreme Court nomination should NOT be confirmed

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Men support it by 49% to 40% A Quinnipiac poll just published finds finds that 48% of US voters think the U.S. Senate should reject Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court, with 42% saying he should be confirmed. Those headline figures overshadow a huge gender divide with women overwhelmingly opposed and men giving Trump’s move some support. At the moment this has all been delayed by the move last Friday to defer things for a week to…

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With his corn field jape Boris seems to be trying to validate the 57% of voters who say would he “make poor leader”

With his corn field jape Boris seems to be trying to validate the 57% of voters who say would he “make poor leader”

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Boris Johnson 'trolls' Theresa May by running through 'field of wheat' https://t.co/8ys3sebgJk — Sky News (@SkyNews) October 1, 2018 Blow for Boris's leadership hopes in YouGov/Times poll. 57%, more than any other contender, think he'd be a poor leader,. Gove has negative rating of 56%, Hunt 47%, Rees-Mogg 40% with Javid at 30% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 29, 2018 And latest from the betting markets Boris loses the favourite slot in the Betfair next CON leader betting pic.twitter.com/p1L8ZS1w5i —…

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A year ago few would have predicted that TMay would have survived till the 2018 conference

A year ago few would have predicted that TMay would have survived till the 2018 conference

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But is the time now running out? One of my losing bets from last year was placed during the Conservative conference after TMay’s disastrous speech that she wasn’t going to make it as leader till the end of the year. It was a surprise that she’d managed to carry on that long following her decision to call a general election three years early and the manner that she conducted that campaign. Well she did and she’s still there although her…

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With polls showing a sharply contrasting picture let’s look at the trend in real election with real voters

With polls showing a sharply contrasting picture let’s look at the trend in real election with real voters

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Harry Hayfield’s 2018 Q3 review For all the talk of Labour advancing and the Conservatives getting stuck in the quagmire that is Brexit, the fact that in the third quarter of 2018 in the local by-elections there’s been such a tiny swing from Con to Lab really does show that the Westminster bubble is just that, a bubble. Perhaps this is why the national polls are showing anything from a Con lead of 6% to a Lab lead of 1%,…

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Polling boost for beleaguered Theresa as the Tory conference opens in Birmingham

Polling boost for beleaguered Theresa as the Tory conference opens in Birmingham

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Her party retakes the lead with Opinium Opinium fieldwprk Sept 26-29 CON 39+2 LAB 36-3 LD 9= It used to be one of those rock solid polling rules that LAB would always get a boost in its polling position in surveys taken at the end of its September conference and before the Tory one started. After all the media focus has been on the red team and during the week the general perception was that Labour had had a much…

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PB Video Analysis: Optionally Rewarding – The Dark Side of Share Options

PB Video Analysis: Optionally Rewarding – The Dark Side of Share Options

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Look in any company report, and you’ll see pages of details about executive compensation. And the biggest part of this is – however dressed up – share options. Get the share price moving, and management is set to make serious money. But what if share options made companies, and the economy, more fragile and encouraged poor decisions. This time, we’re talking about the dark side of share options. Robert Smithson Robert tweets as ‘@MarketWarbles’ Follow @MarketWarbles Tweet

The Conservatives must join and win the battle of ideas

The Conservatives must join and win the battle of ideas

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The Thatcherite consensus is dead; the case for choice, freedom and opportunity is not In full, the United States’ Declaration of Independence is not a very good document. It bears the classic mark of the composite motion, being too long overall and unbalanced in its structure: very nearly half of it is a list of twenty-seven grievances. Fortunately, for history and for the revolutionaries, it was drafted by someone who knew not only how to turn a phrase but where…

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