It’s now 1/6 that the Kavanaugh nomination will go through

It’s now 1/6 that the Kavanaugh nomination will go through

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PaddyPower betting A GOP senator who has read FBI report After being briefed by the FBI today and having the opportunity to read the report myself, I am now even more confident in Judge #Kavanaugh’s nomination and fitness for the court. (1/2) — Tim Scott (@SenatorTimScott) October 4, 2018 A Democratic Senator who has also read it I just reviewed the FBI’s #Kavanaugh report. The FBI never interviewed many relevant witnesses. There are also thousands of pages of leads from…

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How the next CON leader betting market has moved since last year’s Conference

How the next CON leader betting market has moved since last year’s Conference

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A Mr. Johnson still favourite but Javid very close I love these historical charts of Betfair trades from Betdata.io and they are particularly interesting when you have events like the party conferences. The man I’m working hard not to call just by his first name is still there in the favourite slot but the big gainers during the year have been the Home Secretary, Sajid Javid, and the BrexSec, Dominic Raab. Both got promotions since the 2017 conference. I’ve never…

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Both main party leaders have seen their ratings decline since the last conference season – Corbyn’s more May’s

Both main party leaders have seen their ratings decline since the last conference season – Corbyn’s more May’s

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Corbyn needs to turn things round for LAB to have a chance The end of the Party Conference season is a good time to look back at the past year through the prism of the Ipsos MORI leader satisfaction ratings. This is part of the longest running polling series in the UK and is now in its fifth decade. As can be seen from the chart both leaders have experienced a marked decline in the levels of satisfaction over the…

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The sum of all fears

The sum of all fears

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Nobody kicks a dead dog, Dale Carnegie noted.  Based on that observation, we can conclude two things from the Conservative party conference.  First, the government is very fearful that a fresh referendum is a runner.  And secondly, Boris Johnson remains a serious and potent threat.  Speaker after speaker at the Conservative party conference lined up to launch an attack on one or other of these. The Prime Minister is at the head of the queue.  She has gone out of…

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TMay’s big speech – the reaction

TMay’s big speech – the reaction

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Whatever you think of T May as a politician, she’s a human under a lot of pressure and given the extraordinary circumstances, that was a good speech. — Jennifer Williams (@JenWilliams_FT) October 3, 2018 Plea for party unity – again – with a warning to the Brexiteers. “If we all go off in different directions in pursuit of our own visions of the perfect Brexit – we risk ending up with no Brexit at all.” #CPC18 — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby)…

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The Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination: Trump ups the ante by mocking the woman who says she was sexually assaulted

The Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination: Trump ups the ante by mocking the woman who says she was sexually assaulted

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In the betting PaddyPower make it 3/10 that Brett Kavanaugh will be confirmed as Justice of the Supreme Court in 2018 and 21/10 that he won’t. The wider political dimension is how this is going to influence voters in the midterm elections next month when the Democratic party has a realistic chance of taking the House and an outside one of taking the Senate as well. Until a few hours ago Trump had been fairly guarded in how he referred…

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Boris got a leadership betting lift from his speech but he’s now back at a 13% chance

Boris got a leadership betting lift from his speech but he’s now back at a 13% chance

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Betdata.io With all the focus on Johnson’s big speech at the Conservative conference it was inevitable that punters would look to his leadership chances and start risking their money. Well the chart shows the prices on the Betfair Exchange over the past 48 hours and as can be seen there was a lift when he moved up to a 16% chance but that slipped back as betting interest evaporated and now it’s at a 13% chance. To put that into…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Housing policy could decide the next General Election

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: Housing policy could decide the next General Election

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On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh look at recent polling by Matt on behalf of Shelter and ask ‘what’s going on in the marginals’ and ‘How important is housing politically?’ Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @MattSingh_ Tweet