With all the focus on Johnson’s big speech at the Conservative conference it was inevitable that punters would look to his leadership chances and start risking their money. Well the chart shows the prices on the Betfair Exchange over the past 48 hours and as can be seen there was a lift when he moved up to a 16% chance but that slipped back as betting interest evaporated and now it’s at a 13% chance.
To put that into context on the weekend after last year’s general election Johnson was rated at a 30% chance of succeeding Theresa May. Of course at the time everybody was assuming an imminent changeover in the leadership and at number 10. That didn’t happen and maybe Johnston might look back at that weekend and think that he could have got the job then if he had acted which he didn’t.
In all of this Javed remains pretty constant and gives the impression of being a leadership contender who would make it to the final round of members voting.
I’m not betting till I know as a vacancy and then we can assess circumstances at the time.