Why I’m betting that that there is a greater than 35% chance that Brexit won’t happen next March 29th as planned

Why I’m betting that that there is a greater than 35% chance that Brexit won’t happen next March 29th as planned

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I think people are massively underestimating the impact of no deal with voters on a) the Tory brand b) the credibility of Brexit. Don’t underestimate the potential for many voters to shrug and say ‘it can’t be done so let’s not’. Not everyone of course but enough to shift votes. — Keiran Pedley (@keiranpedley) October 14, 2018 If no deal becomes more likely the less chance of the date being met Another week starts with growing uncertainty over whether a…

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Will Theresa May be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory Party conference?

Will Theresa May be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory Party conference?

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Why I’m betting on Theresa May to still be Tory leader at the 2019 Tory party conference. This Paddy Power market is essentially a bet on Mrs May getting a deal done and passed in the Commons. Iff she manages to achieve those two things then I’d expect Mrs May and the Tories to get a boost in the polls so ditching her straight away might not be possible. With Boris Johnson confirming once again he is the modern day…

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A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017

A reminder of how GE2015 UKIP voters voted at GE2017

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The most recent GB wide opinion polls, as collated by Wikipedia. https://t.co/XJhbZIFOjo pic.twitter.com/PK3Ng1vZTl — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 13, 2018 History suggests assuming Kippers will strongly back the Tories when UKIP don’t stand is a mistake. Since the announcement of the Chequers deal in July UKIP have experienced a bit of a polling surge with some polls having them polling 7% and 8% but generally in the 4% to 6% range. I’m expecting UKIP at the next general election will repeat…

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It looks as though TMay won’t be the only main party leader facing a Brexit rebellion. Corbyn’s has one as well

It looks as though TMay won’t be the only main party leader facing a Brexit rebellion. Corbyn’s has one as well

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This could be big. Indy reporting that some LAB MPs reveal they are ready to rescue TMay's Brexit deal in Commons vote. https://t.co/KYC0d9fiks — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2018 The Indy report names some LAB MPs: “Labour MPs told The Independent that at least 15 could rebel against Mr Corbyn and back the government, which could be enough to tip the balance in the Commons in favour of the deal. Hammond claims Brexit deal would deliver ‘economic bonus’ One…

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It had to come. West Virginia becomes the first state where people can vote by smartphone

It had to come. West Virginia becomes the first state where people can vote by smartphone

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Politco is reporting that West Virginia will become the first state in the US where it will be possible to vote by smartphone in the crucial election on November 6th. An app has been created that will allow hundreds of overseas residents, members of the military stationed abroad and others to cast their ballots remotely. It is being emphasised that the app will rely on blockchain, which is the same technology technology that underpins Bitcoin. Politico reports that that this…

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DUP-No10 relations mean that 6/1 for Corbyn as Next PM is value

DUP-No10 relations mean that 6/1 for Corbyn as Next PM is value

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There is enough uncertainty over the next year to give him a decent chance When Ian Paisley said “No!”, people believed that he meant what he said. The Big Man may be gone but his party lives on and it would be extremely unwise for anyone to assume that when Arlene Foster says “no”, she means any different from her predecessor. The DUP do not bluff. Ever. They might occasionally change their minds but when they do, they do so…

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The danger of making resignation threats is this that you look silly if you don’t follow through

The danger of making resignation threats is this that you look silly if you don’t follow through

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Exclusive: Theresa May given the weekend to change her backstop plan or face losing Andrea Leadsom, Esther McVey and Peddy Mordaunt from Cabinet "It is the litmus test for the taking back control… this is the killer moment" https://t.co/G7ky1oFmeV — Adam Payne (@adampayne26) October 12, 2018 Apparently they are saying that they’ll wait until Monday before deciding whether to quit, The backstop is said to be the “crunch point”. They want an explicit end date — and nothing less. As…

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