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After Tuesday Trump surely has less than a 69% chance of being the Republican WH2020 nominee

10/11/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The value bet is that he won’t A number of US commentators are taking the view that the order in which results came in on Tuesday evening is giving a distorted picture of what happened. The early news about the races in Ohio and Florida dominated the initial thinking and overshadowed what is now clear was in fact a big success for the Democrats. The party looks set to make more House gains than at any Midterms since Watergate. The…

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April 2019: month of chaos

10/11/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

A No Deal Brexit is now highly likely in March Nothing has changed: words that might well form Theresa May’s epitaph. Unfortunately for her, unless something does, that epitaph will be needed sooner rather than later. With less than five months until the Brexit deadline, both the parliamentary maths and the European diplomacy remain resolutely irresoluble. Nothing has changed. Some might argue that’s a favourable interpretation; that Jo Johnson’s resignation yesterday indicated the maths are getting worse for the PM…

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PB Video Analysis: Who Won The Midterms? Does It Matter?

9/11/2018 robert Comments 0 Comment

There’s this parody of Guardian readers children’s parties, where pass the parcel involves presents with every layer, and nobody is ever eliminated from musical chairs. This “all must have prizes” mentality seems to have reached US politics, as it appears that everyone won the midterms: the Democrats, the Republicans, Nancy Pelosi and President Trump. Who really won, and – ummm – does it matter? I’m diving into the numbers and letting you know who should be pleased. Robert Smithson Robert…

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BoJo’s brother, Jo Johnson, resigns as a minister and demands a second referendum

9/11/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

With great regret, I'm resigning from the Government – I have set out my reasons in this article and the video below. https://t.co/hzimcS8uiR pic.twitter.com/hUN9RLzDfq — Jo Johnson (@JoJohnsonUK) November 9, 2018 Jo Johnson was Minister of State at the Department for Transport and Minister for London. Does this make a new vote more likely. My guess is yes. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

New polling finds 42% saying the referendum was “unfair and illegitimate” against 38% who say it wasn’t

9/11/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

\ There’s a new Deltapoll out for the December issue of Prospect which asks a number of Bexit-related questions that I do not think have been highlighted before. The biggest one is in the heading that more voters think the referendum was “unfair and illegitimate” against 38% who disagree. This perception will surely add to the Government’s political challenges as we get close to the due date. Martin Boon of DeltaPoll says the polling shows “just how deep is the…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast: What now for Trump and does the public now back Remain?

9/11/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

On this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look into the implications of this week’s mid-terms in the US and dissect data from Survation and Chris Hanretty suggesting that Brits would vote Remain if there was another referendum on Britain’s membership of the EU. Elsewhere in the show, Leo looks at what polling tells us about the prospect of a Cameron comeback and Keiran criticises Momentum’s “consultation” of its members about Labour’s Brexit policy –…

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The main loser from the MidTerms looks set to be “Big Pharma”

8/11/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

One of the things we take for granted in the UK is the cost of our prescription medications. This is all part of the NHS and the majority of patients are too young/old or have chronic conditions which mean that they don’t pay. Even those who don’t benefit from free prescriptions are not asked to pay the cost price of their medication but a fixed fee. This means the NHS as almost a monopoly buyer is able to secure even…

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The PB MidTerms Prize Competition – did you get closest to the O’Rourke vote share?

8/11/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Meanwhile the money goes on O’Rourke for WH2020 Exactly a month ago we launched the PB Prize Midterms competition with the question being: What will be the vote share (to 2 decimal points) of the Texas Democratic candidate, Beto O’Rourke, in the election set for four weeks on Tuesday? It was noted then that “Because it can take some time for final vote share in US elections to be determined this competition will be settled on the vote shares the…

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