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The chances of the UK leaving the EU on March 29th are surely greater than 54%

4/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io With so many big things happening in UK politics as the March 29 EU exit deadline gets nearer one of they key betting markers is surely “Will the UK leave the EU as planned on March 29th next year?”. The chart above shows the moves on Betfair over the past month. It strikes me that the current betting price that it will happen of 54% is an understatement giving the machinations that would have to happen in order for…

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As if things weren’t complicated enough

3/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

UK government may have been in contempt of Parliament by not publishing Brexit legal advice, Commons Speaker rules https://t.co/osk18Kg8GY — BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) December 3, 2018 Bercow said there was 'an arguable case that a contempt has been committed’ and an emergency debate will be held first thing on Tuesday.https://t.co/ulxYTOyGgK — Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) December 3, 2018

Defying the odds Theresa ploughs on

3/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The three weeks that could make or break the PM It has been observed many times before that the the prime minister, Mrs May, is a remarkably resilient person able to go forward when all seems doomed. Who would have thought in the aftermath of the 2017 General Election debacle that eighteen months on she would still be in Number 10 and be on the brink of securing agreement on the deal that takes Britain out of the EU? Let…

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If TMay has to go quickly then, surely, Javid or Hunt should be favourites for “Emergency PM”

3/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

She'll never resign. But, this hinges on hunt and javid – the two biggest beasts and leadership frontrunners for emergency PM. If they say time is up then time is up. — Iain Martin (@iainmartin1) December 2, 2018 Both might be worth a punt for next PM I’ve long taken the view that Theresa May is not going to resign voluntarily before her mission of handling brexit and taking the UK out of the EU has been accomplished. However the…

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Local By-Election Review : November 2018

2/12/2018 Editor Comments 0 Comment

The nights may be starting to draw in and people’s minds are starting to turn to the thoughts of Christmas presents, but for the electors in the 22 council wards where there were local by-elections in November, the main discussion point was who to vote for in those local by-elections. And for the first time since July, the UKIP decline seemed to benefit everyone with Con, Lab and Lib Dem all advancing and as a result of that the…

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The question supporters of a ‘People’s vote’ need to answer. If another referendum is good enough for the UK, then surely it must be good enough for Scotland?

2/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Scotland could become an independent nation without another referendum if Scots elect a large majority of SNP MPs or if the SNP win a majority of the vote in Scotland at a Westminster GE. The SNP won 35 out 59 seats at GE2017 with under 37% of the vote.https://t.co/HAIRzuSZ58 pic.twitter.com/gElzpubu8c — TSE (@TSEofPB) December 2, 2018 Even though I’m someone who considers Brexit the greatest blunder this country has undertaken since appeasement I’m not a fan of another referendum until…

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Take Khan to the bank

2/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The tip I’m about to give is not particularly exciting, or thrilling and it certainly won’t get you rich overnight seeing as the potential payday in question is top price 2-5 and 542 days away at the time of writing this article. But it is highly likely to win, more than the implied 71.4% that the odds suggest. The bet is Sadiq Khan to win the London mayoral election in 2020. Unlike many long term political bets (Tory & Labour…

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Can the UK trade under WTO rules and avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland: the WTO Security Exception

1/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Of all the issues covered by the 600-odd page Withdrawal Agreement, it is hondootedly Article 6: “Until the future relationship becomes applicable, a single customs territory between the Union and the United Kingdom shall be established”, or “the backstop”, that causes the greatest angst; critics say it ties the UK into EU customs alignment with no unilateral means of exit and want Theresa May to junk it. Designed to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland, without the backstop, there is…

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