PB Video Analysis: The UK Economy – It’s Not About The Brexit

PB Video Analysis: The UK Economy – It’s Not About The Brexit

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From the outside the UK economy looks pretty healthy. Unemployment is low and economic growth has been more consistent than any of its EU peers. Little wonder its politicians regard it as a success story. There’s only one problem. The UK economy is built on an edifice of consumption and debt. The work we do? It’s selling things to each other that have been made abroad. It’s a dangerously fragile situation, where we congratulate ourselves on maxing our credit cards…

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After a difficult week since the “deal” was published some welcome polling for TMay from YouGov

After a difficult week since the “deal” was published some welcome polling for TMay from YouGov

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This is as negative for the ERG gang as it is positive for the PM On the front page of the Times  this morning there is a report on part of its latest YouGov poll relating to its TMay trackers asking whether and when she should go. Last week’s poll came just as the Brexit deal was being published and had the most negative numbers yet for the PM. In just a week as the chart above shows there’s been…

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The Adonis assertion that there’s going to be a second referendum fails to convince punters

The Adonis assertion that there’s going to be a second referendum fails to convince punters

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Labour peer Lord Adonis rules out the possibility of a general election over Brexit gridlock, instead considering a referendum more likely in 2019. Click here for the latest Brexit news: https://t.co/XHe3BeFcGK pic.twitter.com/3NJvhYGcSi — Sky News Politics (@SkyNewsPolitics) November 20, 2018 The second referendum betting has been narrowing but still punters only give it a 38% chance. Chart from @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/dQWTZTihVM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 20, 2018 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

If the ERG plotters get their 48 letters today and TMay loses the vote she’ll likely still be there at the end of the year

If the ERG plotters get their 48 letters today and TMay loses the vote she’ll likely still be there at the end of the year

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At one stage in my career I used to advise Betfair on the precise market rules for its political markets. These are critically important because an exchange like Betfair stands in between those who are laying bets and those who are backing and needs to have something to fall back on should there be a disagreement. So anytime you want to make a political bet it is important for your own protection to check the market rules. The currently heavy…

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Taking stock. Brexit – just where are we and what are the options

Taking stock. Brexit – just where are we and what are the options

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So a Shopping Centre on the Isle of Man just had their Christmas decorations done… ? pic.twitter.com/4s8MMsd9zn — Liam Rice (@li4miom) November 18, 2018 Christmas comes ever earlier each year. When I was a child, we didn’t hear anything about it until 1 December, when Radio 1 broke out the Christmas tracks. Contrast that with this year. Aldi launched their Christmas advert with Kevin the carrot on 9 November. John Lewis unveiled Elton John for their Christmas campaign on 15 November. And poor Theresa…

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A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of the possible alternatives

A big reason TMay is defying political gravity is because of the possible alternatives

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Last year my biggest political betting loss was on Theresa May not surviving. Like many others after her disappointing GE2017 outcome I was ready to write off her chances of staying at number 10. Well 18 months on she is still there and I now approach the end of the year with completely the opposite betting position. My money is on the Prime Minister being the Prime Minister and Tory leader at the end of the year. This is a…

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