Elizabeth Warren’s WH2020 annoucement is bad news for Bernie

Elizabeth Warren’s WH2020 annoucement is bad news for Bernie

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They both appeal to similar segments of the Dems base The big WH2020 news today is the announcement from Massachusetts Senator, Elizabeth Warren, that she’s putting her hat into the ring for the 2020 Democratic nomination She’s declared that she’s establishing an exploratory committee — the legal precursor to a run. This comes as other candidates, including several of her fellow senators, were reported to be making made final preparations for their own announcements. The news follows speculation that the…

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Just because Corbyn’s LAB almost closed a massive poll gap at GE17 is no guarantee that it’ll happen again

Just because Corbyn’s LAB almost closed a massive poll gap at GE17 is no guarantee that it’ll happen again

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LAB’s got to stop looking at next time through the prism of 2017 The extraordinary performance at the last election of Labour continues to dominate thinking about the next one with an assumption in many quarters that because the party was able to come from a huge poll deficit to within 2.5% then the same will happen again. Labour activists rightly point to the fact that during a general election the party gets more equal media coverage and that is…

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A few general election constituency betting markets for your perusal

A few general election constituency betting markets for your perusal

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Ladbrokes have put up what I think are the first constituency markets for the next general election, I’ve always looked fondly at these markets, especially after the 2015 general election where there was a lot of profit in backing the Tories in the English marginals, and the SNP everywhere in Scotland. Chingford & Woodford Green and Richmond Park I think it is worth looking at both Greater London seats together. Demographics and Brexit are working against the Tories in London…

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Matters of confidence. What to expect if the government loses a vote of no confidence

Matters of confidence. What to expect if the government loses a vote of no confidence

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Care to make it interesting? As if politics wasn’t already volatile enough, the government faces the persistent threat of a vote of no confidence. Jeremy Corbyn made a complete ass of himself and several of his most senior colleagues before the Christmas break with an on-off-on-again-off-again vote of no confidence, but he will have other opportunities. The current government is a minority government, kept in power through the offices of the DUP. Right now, however, the DUP are not happy….

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PB 2018 betting review: Brexit – whether it will happen on time and the chances of a second referendum

PB 2018 betting review: Brexit – whether it will happen on time and the chances of a second referendum

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With brexit being just about the only political story in the UK during 2018 it is inevitable that there has been a lot of betting attention. In the charts above I feature two markets. First whether Britain will actually leave the EU as planned on March 29th and second on the chances of a second referendum. As can be seen in the top chart punters saw Brexit not happening on the due date as favourite till the final week in…

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After Thursday’s Alastair Meeks 2019 predictions David Herdson takes a very different view of what the New Year will bring

After Thursday’s Alastair Meeks 2019 predictions David Herdson takes a very different view of what the New Year will bring

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Get ready for the most dramatic year in UK politics for decades 2018 was boring, wasn’t it? No leadership change among the three main parties for the first time in four years, only the third year this decade without a general election or a major referendum, and not even the distraction of a big foreign election (the best on offer was the Italian election, which also produced the only change among the G7 leaders). Except of course it wasn’t. True,…

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Bernie Sanders reported to be struggling to hang on to his WH2016 backers as he ponders WH2020

Bernie Sanders reported to be struggling to hang on to his WH2016 backers as he ponders WH2020

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Next year 2019 one of the big US events that will dominate political betting will be the fight for the WH2020 Democratic party nomination. The early polling here is really not that useful because it is mostly about name recognition and one of the big names is Bernie Sanders, the socialist from Vermont. He far exceeded expectations in the Democratic primary battle with Hillary Clinton and the question is whether the 77 year old will throw his hat into the…

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PB 2018 betting review – Next CON leader

PB 2018 betting review – Next CON leader

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Betdata.io Five favourites none tighter than 20% As we move to the final days of 2018 I thought it’d be useful to look back at some of the key betting markets and see how opinion amongst gamblers has changed. These are people, of course, who are prepared to back their opinions up with cash and thanks to the nature of the Betfair betting exchange we are able to track it by the minute. The first one up is who will…

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