PB 2018 betting review – Next CON leader

PB 2018 betting review – Next CON leader


Five favourites none tighter than 20%

As we move to the final days of 2018 I thought it’d be useful to look back at some of the key betting markets and see how opinion amongst gamblers has changed. These are people, of course, who are prepared to back their opinions up with cash and thanks to the nature of the Betfair betting exchange we are able to track it by the minute.

The first one up is who will replace Theresa May as Conservative leader. This has been active throughout the year mostly because of the precarious position that the incumbent has been in since losing the Tory majority at the 2017 general election.

I used to get sick of the the Sunday papers reporting almost weekly that a move to oust TMay was just about to head to happen. Even when the 48 requests went in to 1922 Chair Brady the super resilient Theresa has managed to hang on.

She’s attempting to pursue a policy on Brexit that appears to satisfy few within her party and one that can potentially lead her into dangerous situations which could indeed end in her losing her job.

    As can be seen from the chart at there have been five different favourites in the past 12 months none of whom has managed to be rated as more than a 19% chance.

For a long period it was Jacob Rees Mogg, who had never even been a minister, headed the betting a situation that ended in mid-May although we had a brief return to the favourite slot the following month.

The next one up to attract punters cash was Michael Gove but he only had about 3 weeks at the head of the pack.

Sajid Javid, who was promoted to Home Secretary during the year in place of Amber Rudd, was the next to take over in July. He has bobbed up and down a bit and is now favourite once again though only rated as a 13% chance.

The Tory who had been the long-term favourite before the July 2016 Conservative leadership election, Boris Johnson, had his brief period in the sun but had never been able to sustain a long run.

In early December there was another favourite, Dominic Raab a former BrexSec who is still relatively unknown outside Westminster.

Mike Smithson

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