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Matters of confidence. What to expect if the government loses a vote of no confidence

30/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Care to make it interesting? As if politics wasn’t already volatile enough, the government faces the persistent threat of a vote of no confidence. Jeremy Corbyn made a complete ass of himself and several of his most senior colleagues before the Christmas break with an on-off-on-again-off-again vote of no confidence, but he will have other opportunities. The current government is a minority government, kept in power through the offices of the DUP. Right now, however, the DUP are not happy….

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PB 2018 betting review: Brexit – whether it will happen on time and the chances of a second referendum

29/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

With brexit being just about the only political story in the UK during 2018 it is inevitable that there has been a lot of betting attention. In the charts above I feature two markets. First whether Britain will actually leave the EU as planned on March 29th and second on the chances of a second referendum. As can be seen in the top chart punters saw Brexit not happening on the due date as favourite till the final week in…

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After Thursday’s Alastair Meeks 2019 predictions David Herdson takes a very different view of what the New Year will bring

29/12/2018 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Get ready for the most dramatic year in UK politics for decades 2018 was boring, wasn’t it? No leadership change among the three main parties for the first time in four years, only the third year this decade without a general election or a major referendum, and not even the distraction of a big foreign election (the best on offer was the Italian election, which also produced the only change among the G7 leaders). Except of course it wasn’t. True,…

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Bernie Sanders reported to be struggling to hang on to his WH2016 backers as he ponders WH2020

28/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Next year 2019 one of the big US events that will dominate political betting will be the fight for the WH2020 Democratic party nomination. The early polling here is really not that useful because it is mostly about name recognition and one of the big names is Bernie Sanders, the socialist from Vermont. He far exceeded expectations in the Democratic primary battle with Hillary Clinton and the question is whether the 77 year old will throw his hat into the…

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PB 2018 betting review – Next CON leader

28/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io Five favourites none tighter than 20% As we move to the final days of 2018 I thought it’d be useful to look back at some of the key betting markets and see how opinion amongst gamblers has changed. These are people, of course, who are prepared to back their opinions up with cash and thanks to the nature of the Betfair betting exchange we are able to track it by the minute. The first one up is who will…

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With Trump under pressure there’s just a possibility that Nancy Pelosi could become President in 2019

27/12/2018 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes offered me 200/1 on the possibility This is a remote possibility and the stuff of West Wing but there’s just a chance that the Democrat who’s likely to be elected Speaker of the House next month, Nancy Pelosi, could become president in 2019. Under the US constitution the House Speaker is second in line to succeed the President after the Vice president and it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that events could turn against the incumbent and…

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With just five days to go the PB/Alastair Meeks predictions for 2019

26/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Rarely has British politics faced such binary questions: Remain or Leave? Deal or no deal? Referendum or no referendum? What kind of a fool is going to make predictions about the coming year? Let me raise my hand. In truth, the uncertainties we face at the beginning of 2019 are if anything easier to deal with than usual. What derail most predictions are the unknown unknowns. The problems for predicting 2019 look more likely to be known unknowns – who…

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Looking back over 2018: Alastair Meeks reviews his predictions

26/12/2018 TSE Comments 0 Comment

It’s that time of year when everyone makes predictions about what is coming up. Oddly, you get rather fewer articles looking back at the previous year’s predictions. Funny that. I make predictions each year to set out my considered thoughts and to see where they went wrong, in an effort to see where I can get better when assessing scenarios for my betting. So how did I do twelve months ago? For once, not too badly at all. I made…

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