Three new Scotland polls find Corbyn’s LAB struggling to recover

Three new Scotland polls find Corbyn’s LAB struggling to recover

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The first public surveys since Corbyn’s August Scottish initiative It might be recalled that in August Corbyn had an extended visit to Scotland with the aim of revitalising the party where it used to be so dominant. Over the past few days we have seen the first published polling since that move Ahead of the SNP conference which is currently going on there have been three new Scotland-only polls – the first since July. All show LAB still in third…

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Punters now make it a 57% chance that TMay will be out next year

Punters now make it a 57% chance that TMay will be out next year

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There’s been more movement on the TMay exit year market on Betfair as seen in the Betdata.io chart. The 57% that next year is now rated is a record high and reflects the view that she’ll hang on until the UK is out of the EU at the end of March and then she’ll stand aside. But will she? That she is still in Number 10 today is a remarkable achievement given that last year she took the advice from…

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If there is a second referendum then the hardline Brexiters should take the blame

If there is a second referendum then the hardline Brexiters should take the blame

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Excellent by @robertshrimsley on the dangers of a 2nd referendum https://t.co/bOi05az8Y4 pic.twitter.com/2o3LwcjRyU — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) October 8, 2018 The article from Robert Shrimsley of the FT linked to here is just about the most clear-headed one I’ve seen recently on where Brexit stands and where things might be heading. He argues strongly that a second vote won’t settle the matter and suggests that the best route for Remainers is to accept that they lost and seek to “to thwart…

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New Midterms survey finds the Democrats making progress in 69 key marginals

New Midterms survey finds the Democrats making progress in 69 key marginals

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In what we in the UK would describe as a poll of marginals the Washington Post is reporting a survey in 69 key Congressional districts which overall voted 56% Republican to 41% Democratic last time, This latest survey by the Schar School at George Mason University has the Democrats on 50% to the Republicans on 46%. In UK terms that represents quite some swing. The paper notes that they went for this approach because “we know less about the opinions…

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Prize Competition: Your chance to win the definitive work on what happened at GE2017

Prize Competition: Your chance to win the definitive work on what happened at GE2017

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What’s going to be the Texas Senatorial race result on November 6th? I’ve just got my copy of the Phil Cowley/Denis Kavanagh study of the 2017 general election. As well as an excellent narrative on what was going on there’s also a detailed statistical analysis of the results from John Curtice and others. This series was started for GE1945 and has continued unbroken ever since. From what I’ve read so far it really is excellent read and superb reference book…

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The end of the court of Sessions?

The end of the court of Sessions?

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Paddy Power have a market up which is one of my favourite types of market, will X be in their job or not by a certain. There are stories that Trump will be considering a few major changes to his cabinet after the mid terms, Defense [sic] Secretary Jim Mattis is one at risk but the person most at risk I think is Attorney General. I’m expecting the Democrats to take the House in November even if they don’t formally…

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If Boris Johnson is putting the CTF band together the last time they worked together he was massively overstated in the polls

If Boris Johnson is putting the CTF band together the last time they worked together he was massively overstated in the polls

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Don’t be seduced by massive Johnson leads. History suggests Boris isn’t as personally popular as the polls would have you believe. The Times reported earlier on this week that An aide to the campaigning guru Sir Lynton Crosby was seen at Boris Johnson’s home yesterday morning, hours before his conference rally. In the clearest sign yet of how closely the former foreign secretary is working with Sir Lynton’s company, Mimi Randolph, a staffer at CTF Partners, was pictured leaving his…

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The one thing we are not getting st the moment is a clear picture from the polls

The one thing we are not getting st the moment is a clear picture from the polls

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So which pollsters’ numbers do you prefer Conference season is now over and we now face the final few months before Britain is scheduled to leave the EU. UK politics is set to go through a period of turmoil and there’s not an insignificant chance that there could be an early general election. Mrs. May’s wonderful dance sequence prior to her Birmingham conference speech might have diverted attention for a short while but decisions that could impact on the nation…

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