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Gove still heading the TMay successor betting as we get closer to the Article 50 deadline

2/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io But it really could be just about anyone David Herdson’s header this morning about the LAB leadership is a reminder that we haven’t looked at the TMay successor betting for some time. Given that a 2019 Conservative leadership contest is much more likely than a LAB one then we should really keep an eye on it. The chart shows the extraordinary rise in early January of Michael Gove who has now established himself with a solid lead, in the…

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Labour’s Next Leader: Dawn Butler at 100/1?

2/2/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

We need to learn the lessons of Corbyn’s wins Identifying Labour’s future leaders used to be a relatively easy job, certainly when compared against the Tories. Gaitskell, Wilson, Callaghan, Smith and Brown were all clearly identifiable as strong contenders five years or more before they took on the job. Blair, at that same distance, could have been seen (rightly, as it turned out), as a future potential leader but not the next one. Kinnock and Ed Miliband were a little…

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January 2019 Local By-Elections

1/2/2019 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Bexhill West on East Sussex (January 10th 2019) Independent 1,761 votes (52% +2% on last time) Conservative 1,071 votes (32% -1% on last time) Liberal Democrat 261 votes (8% +2% on last time) Labour 111 votes (3% -4% on last time) Green Party 107 votes (3% no candidate last time) UKIP 81 votes (2% -2% on last time) Independent HOLD with a majority of 690 (20%) on a swing of 1.5% from Con to Ind St. Mark’s on Rother (January…

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Beto O’Rourke says he can’t decide whether to run for the Presidency or become a teacher

1/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The one-time Democratic nominee favourite still pondering WH2020 Beto O’Rourke, the former congressman from El Paso in Texas, has not really been heard from since pushing Ted Cruz very close in the Senate race last November in a race that received huge amount of media attention. His campaigning and fundraising ability to mobilise a very large volunteer force and raise a huge amount of cash all led to speculation that he might be the one who would take on Trump…

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The indications are that the Article 50 exit might have to be put back

31/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Cabinet ministers who believe it may be necessary to extend A50 include to finalise deal include: Jeremy HuntSajid JavidAndrea LeadsomDavid GaukeAmber RuddLiam FoxDamian HindsGreg Clark Interestingly they span Brexit divide. There’s no consensus yet but could soon be — Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) January 31, 2019 This impacts of the “Will Brexit happen on Schedule” betting Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

New YouGov leader ratings finds both TMay and Corbyn struggling with their voters from GE2017

31/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Getting on for half of GE2017 LAB voters view Corbyn unfavourably Only minutes after I published the previous thread bemoaning the fact that we see very few leader ratings surveys in British polls up popped YouGov with its latest favorability numbers. The main figures for Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are in the screenshot above. To my mind the most important cross-break is the party split from the 2017 General Election. What do those who voted for you last time…

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Corbyn’s approval ratings fall from from a net minus 3% to a net minus 32% in just one year

31/1/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Opinium By comparison TMay’ drop from a net minus 13% to minus 20% One of the features of conventional British political analysis is that almost all the focus is on voting intention for an election that might not take place for another few years with hardly any attention being given to leader approval ratings. This is so different from the US where leader ratings dominate the political polling narrative. I was quite impressed ahead of last November’s American mid-term elections…

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Taking stock of Brexit with fewer than 60 days until we Leave

30/1/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Let’s take stock of where we are right now. Most of the leading chains of supermarkets, together with KFC, Pret A Manger and McDonald’s, have warned that a no-deal Brexit would put Britain’s food security at risk. The Health Secretary has confirmed that medicines are going to be prioritised over food, which is simultaneously very sensible and absolutely nuts. He has also confirmed that a lot more needs to be done to safeguard supplies of medicines, with over half of…

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