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It appears Blair slayer Tom Watson has his sights on Jeremy Corbyn

24/2/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Tom Watson reveals he has send Jeremy Corbyn a dossier of 50 allegations of anti-Semitism that he feels have not been dealt with by Labour. Big move. He's putting this directly on Jeremy Corbyn's doorstep. What will Corbyn do? — Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) February 24, 2019 Tom Watson just delivered Corbyn a series of ultimatums. a ) Deal with AS personally. b) Deal with these specific 50 cases. c) Let me start to develop policy independently of you. d) Back…

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Birds of a Feather

24/2/2019 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

Many Tories seem to think that, however bad their problems, they are as nothing compared to the complaints about bullying and anti-Semitism so widely canvassed by ex-Labour MPs this week. They have yet to be accused of racism by tearful MPs, the polls appear to put them in a small lead and once Brexit is sorted they can get back to doing what they do best, or so the hope appears to be. (Though whether a party which claims to have…

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New Opinium poll has LAB moving from level-pegging to 8% behind in just a week

23/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

LAB 32-5 CON 40+3 TIG 6 LD 5-3 UKIP 7= The first of what could number of polls tonight is from Opinium for the Observer and sees the Tories take an 8% lead up from level-pegging a week ago. That’s quite a movement. Clearly the week has seen another political story dominate the headlines that is not Brexit and much of the focus of the new Independent Group has been critical of LAB and particularly its leader. Corbyn looks less…

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TIGgers can reshape politics – but not as a collective of lone wolves

23/2/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

They have declared war on the current party system, and must win or die Extinction is the usual fate of most political splits. Whether by political defeat or by a subsequent merger into a pre-existing party, any MP resigning from his or her party and not defecting directly to another one usually finds their subsequent career to be one of struggle, isolation and defeat. Is there any reason to think that this week’s extraordinary events could lead to any different…

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With a cabinet revolt the balance could be moving to Article 50 being extended

22/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

In exactly five weeks time at 11pm GMT the UK is due to leave the EU following the procedure laid down in Article 50. With time running out and the threat of a no-deal getting closer three cabinet ministers have taken it into their hands to break all notions of cabinet government and write a piece for the Daily Mail. Their action appears to be designed to blunt the plans of the Toey Brexit group the ERG who are using…

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Labour needs a better response than the TIGers should resign and fight by-elections

22/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

If LAB had demanded that Jared O'Mara quit his Sheffield Hallam seat then its calls for the seven to resign and have by-elections would carry more weight. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2019 Can we please stop repeating the lie that it's a "convention" for defecting MPs to trigger a by-election? Since WW2, 69 MPs have switched from 1 party to another (not including party mergers, withdrawals of the whip, & sitting as an Independent). Only 4 triggered by-elections….

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Listen to the PB / Polling Matters experts dissect the surveys on The Independent Group in the latest Podcast

22/2/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The Polling Matters podcast returns, with Keiran Pedley (now of Ipsos MORI) and Leo Barasi discussing the latest polling on The Independent Group. Just how popular are they with the public? Listen to the episode below: Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

William Hill make it odds-on that none of the original LAB and CON TIGers will hold their seats

21/2/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The basic bet is whether any of the founding 11 TIGers are going to be returned as MPs at the next general election. The names listed are Heidi Allen, Luciana Berger, Ann Coffey, Mike Gapes, Chris Leslie, Joan Ryan, Gavin Shuker, Angela Smith, Anna Soubry, Chuka Umunna and Sarah Wollaston. I’d reckon that Chuka Umunna and Sarah Wollaston would be in with a fighting chance with, I’d guess. high name recognition in their constituencies. I think Heidi Allen in Cambridgeshire…

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