The basic bet is whether any of the founding 11 TIGers are going to be returned as MPs at the next general election.
The names listed are Heidi Allen, Luciana Berger, Ann Coffey, Mike Gapes, Chris Leslie, Joan Ryan, Gavin Shuker, Angela Smith, Anna Soubry, Chuka Umunna and Sarah Wollaston.
I’d reckon that Chuka Umunna and Sarah Wollaston would be in with a fighting chance with, I’d guess. high name recognition in their constituencies. I think Heidi Allen in Cambridgeshire South might be in with a good chance given that her main opponents when she was a CON candidate was the LibDem.
Anna Soubry has a high profile and you cannot write her off.
My reading of the bet is that they could stand in seats other than their current constituency though I’d guess they’d fare better on home turf.
The experience of the switchers to the SDP at GE1983 was that most struggled to hold on but some did. That’s possibly a good guide.
I’ve had a small bet that at least one will be returned.