William Hill make it odds-on that none of the original LAB and CON TIGers will hold their seats

William Hill make it odds-on that none of the original LAB and CON TIGers will hold their seats

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The basic bet is whether any of the founding 11 TIGers are going to be returned as MPs at the next general election. The names listed are Heidi Allen, Luciana Berger, Ann Coffey, Mike Gapes, Chris Leslie, Joan Ryan, Gavin Shuker, Angela Smith, Anna Soubry, Chuka Umunna and Sarah Wollaston. I’d reckon that Chuka Umunna and Sarah Wollaston would be in with a fighting chance with, I’d guess. high name recognition in their constituencies. I think Heidi Allen in Cambridgeshire…

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The prospects for The Independent Group

The prospects for The Independent Group

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So, is The Independent Group going to break the mould of British politics? The general consensus is that it will be doing well to scrape off the top of the jam. In fact, it seems to me that it is the wrong question. We are all bewitching ourselves with memories of the SDP. This breakaway is not like that breakaway. First, we need to ask ourselves what the group is trying to achieve. Breaking the mould does not seem particularly…

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Corbyn’s no longer the “Next PM” betting favourite as punters evaluate the week’s big developments

Corbyn’s no longer the “Next PM” betting favourite as punters evaluate the week’s big developments

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Gove now in the number one slot With LAB so far losing more of its MPs to TIG than CON then the ability of Corbyn to force an election though mounting a confidence vote has declined a notch. More exits mean fewer MPs who take the Labour whip puts the LAB leader in Commons arithmetic terms in a worse position. I’ve never really seen why Corbyn should be favourite here because if…

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Corbyn harking back to LAB’s GE2017 vote share is no solution to the party’s current challenges

Corbyn harking back to LAB’s GE2017 vote share is no solution to the party’s current challenges

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We will deliver the change the people of this country need and deserve. pic.twitter.com/17NRn222s4 — Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) February 20, 2019 For many he is seen as the problem Little noticed in this week’s political turmoil was some new polling from YouGov that had Corbyn dropping to a new low in its well/badly ratings. The trend was in line with all the other leader ratings that we’ve seen the last few weeks that whatever the pollster and whatever the question…

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Newport West – the first electoral test for the TIGers?

Newport West – the first electoral test for the TIGers?

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OrdnanceSurvey One thing that we learnt from the launch of the SDP in 1981 is that a new party has to achieve and demonstrate electoral success quickly. Although the Independent group has made great efforts not to be a political party it will achieve success faster if it can show in real elections that both LAB and CON voters and others are more inclined to it than the parties led by Mr Corbyn and Mrs, May. Back in 1981 I…

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Now CON MPs defect to the TIGers

Now CON MPs defect to the TIGers

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The shifting sands of politics shift again. This must have not been an easy decision either. But it says a lot that some of the (ex) Tory MPs I respect the most have now left. https://t.co/xJmW5pq6NF — Layla Moran (@LaylaMoran) February 20, 2019 That’s four times as many who switched to the SDP As expected The Independent Group is dominating the headlines with an announcement a few minutes ago that three women Tory MPs have decided to switch. None of…

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Independents’ day. The implications for Jeremy Corbyn

Independents’ day. The implications for Jeremy Corbyn

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I am disappointed that these MPs have felt unable to continue to work together for the Labour policies that inspired millions at the last election and saw us increase our vote by the largest share since 1945. — Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) February 18, 2019 Labour won people over on a programme for the many not the few – redistributing wealth and power, taking vital resources into public ownership, investing in every region and nation, and tackling climate change. — Jeremy…

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Bernie Sanders, 77, decides to take the plunge and moves to third in the nomination betting

Bernie Sanders, 77, decides to take the plunge and moves to third in the nomination betting

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But how seriously should we view his campaign? I must admit that I cannot see either 76 year old Joe Biden or 77 Bernie winning the nomination in eighteen months time. The former has yet to decide while Bernie, who ran Hillary close at WH2016, announced today that he’s going for it. He joins an increasingly crowded field of aspiring nominees and the race will be so unlike last time when it was really just down to two. What he…

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