Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange And its a 22% chance that the UK will leave as planned on March 29th Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
Tom Watson reveals he has send Jeremy Corbyn a dossier of 50 allegations of anti-Semitism that he feels have not been dealt with by Labour. Big move. He's putting this directly on Jeremy Corbyn's doorstep. What will Corbyn do? — Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) February 24, 2019 Tom Watson just delivered Corbyn a series of ultimatums. a ) Deal with AS personally. b) Deal with these specific 50 cases. c) Let me start to develop policy independently of you. d) Back…
Many Tories seem to think that, however bad their problems, they are as nothing compared to the complaints about bullying and anti-Semitism so widely canvassed by ex-Labour MPs this week. They have yet to be accused of racism by tearful MPs, the polls appear to put them in a small lead and once Brexit is sorted they can get back to doing what they do best, or so the hope appears to be. (Though whether a party which claims to have…
LAB 32-5 CON 40+3 TIG 6 LD 5-3 UKIP 7= The first of what could number of polls tonight is from Opinium for the Observer and sees the Tories take an 8% lead up from level-pegging a week ago. That’s quite a movement. Clearly the week has seen another political story dominate the headlines that is not Brexit and much of the focus of the new Independent Group has been critical of LAB and particularly its leader. Corbyn looks less…
They have declared war on the current party system, and must win or die Extinction is the usual fate of most political splits. Whether by political defeat or by a subsequent merger into a pre-existing party, any MP resigning from his or her party and not defecting directly to another one usually finds their subsequent career to be one of struggle, isolation and defeat. Is there any reason to think that this week’s extraordinary events could lead to any different…
In exactly five weeks time at 11pm GMT the UK is due to leave the EU following the procedure laid down in Article 50. With time running out and the threat of a no-deal getting closer three cabinet ministers have taken it into their hands to break all notions of cabinet government and write a piece for the Daily Mail. Their action appears to be designed to blunt the plans of the Toey Brexit group the ERG who are using…
If LAB had demanded that Jared O'Mara quit his Sheffield Hallam seat then its calls for the seven to resign and have by-elections would carry more weight. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2019 Can we please stop repeating the lie that it's a "convention" for defecting MPs to trigger a by-election? Since WW2, 69 MPs have switched from 1 party to another (not including party mergers, withdrawals of the whip, & sitting as an Independent). Only 4 triggered by-elections….
The Polling Matters podcast returns, with Keiran Pedley (now of Ipsos MORI) and Leo Barasi discussing the latest polling on The Independent Group. Just how popular are they with the public? Listen to the episode below: Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet