So, let’s imagine. It’s the Ides of March. MPs have voted against Mrs May’s Deal (again). They’ve voted against No Deal. They’ve voted in favour of an extension. Through gritted teeth Mrs May announces to Parliament that she and her faithful sherpa, Olly Robbins, will be off to Brussels (again) to agree a short extension. By now, one imagines, they must have their own personal Eurostar carriage and enough Belgian chocolate, vacuum-packed mussels and frozen frites in their larder to…
July 2016 ComRes polling that had 42% of Leave voters prioritising staying in the single market. Any politician trying to assert that what they propose, as we enter the final month of Article 50 process, is the “will of the people” should be treated like a snake oil salesman. It is now nearly three years since the referendum and things have moved on in all sorts of ways particularly in understanding what a possible deal would look like. So I’d…
Lots of betting activity as we move closer to March – the month when the UK is due to leave the EU. The big issue is whether MPs will agree a deal and the view of the betting markets, as seen in the Betdata.io chart, is that its a 77% chance that it won’t happen. It is important here to check the exact terms of Betfair’s market before risking your cash. “When will the House of Commons vote through a…
I’ve just had a small wager at 3/1 with Ladbrokes that a deal that the Commons “meaningful vote” will secure the backing of MPs for the deal.This is what the Indy’s John Rentoul wrote after yesterday’s cabinet meeting: “..the chances of Theresa May getting her Brexit deal through parliament are rising. I think it is now the most likely outcome, with the UK leaving the EU on 29 March or a few weeks later. Partly, this is because it is…
The overnight YouGov poll giving the Conservatives an 11% lead was the worst for LAB since the 2017 general election. I like to look at polls in context which is why above there there is the full Wikipedia list of all GB voting intention polls this year. The big picture is that LAB is on the decline and the Tories are moving up a bit. Although you’ve got a range of Conservative leads between 4% and 11% surveys it’s the…
No deal by March 30 drops to a 14% chance 0500 UPDATE Leaving the EU on schedule rated as a 19% chance The charts, generated by Betdata.io are based on live betting movements on the Betfair Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
He’s LAB’s deputy with his own separate mandate It is very hard to think of any other organisation where a deputy can operate in the manner that Tom Watson is doing at the moment. His response to the defection of nine MPs has been very much to sympathize recognising the culture within the party that led to their decisions. He’s also forwarded to the leadership 50 cases of anti-semitism which he wants investigating. You wonder what Seamus Milne, Len McCluskey,…
For all the different polling questions being asked at the moment I prefer tracker questions which use the same format in the same way in poll after poll to get an historical picture of how things are developing. The best, as I repeatedly argue, are leader ratings which rarely get the attention they deserve often being ignored completely by the media outlets that commission them. Unlike voting intention surveys which seek to establish what respondents might or might not do…