At GE2017 CON voters were SIX TIMES more likely to say Brexit was the key factor in deciding votes than LAB ones

At GE2017 CON voters were SIX TIMES more likely to say Brexit was the key factor in deciding votes than LAB ones

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Lord Ashcroft polls Why Brexit is much less of an issue for the red team On General Election day in June 2017 the Conservative peer, Lord Ashcroft, carried out a large sample poll to try to find out why voters had decided in the way they had. A key question was asking what was the main factor in determining the votes and the outcomes for each main group of parties are featured in the chart above. As can be seen…

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If LAB is serious about a second referendum it must seek a 6+ month A50 extension

If LAB is serious about a second referendum it must seek a 6+ month A50 extension

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Will it table the necessary amendment or is it all just words? Enthusiastic it was not. The Labour leadership finally adopting the policy set out at Conference of seeking a second referendum, now that a general election is not a viable means of stopping Brexit, came with all the keenness of toddler being encouraged to eat spinach. Even now, Corbyn is happy to mix notional support for a referendum with ‘other solutions’ being on the table. This matters because in…

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Local By-Election Summary : February 2019

Local By-Election Summary : February 2019

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Labour 7,858 votes (30% -4% on last time) winning 3 seats (-2 seats on last time) Liberal Democrats 6,854 votes (26% +10% on last time) winning 2 seats (+1 seat on last time) Conservatives 6,267 votes (24% -1% on last time) winning 3 seats (unchanged on last time) Plaid Cymru 831 votes (3% +1% on last time) winning 1 seat (+1 seat on last time) Green Party 691 votes (3% -1% on last time) winning 0 seats (unchanged on last…

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If there are UK Euro elections in May Farage’s new Brexit party could easily beat UKIP

If there are UK Euro elections in May Farage’s new Brexit party could easily beat UKIP

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The elections that may or may not happen While all sorts of attention has been given to the splits within the Conservative and Labour parties there has been very little coverage of the fact that UKIP, which won the 2014 UK euro elections, has been totally divided over the past 5 years. Barely a 3rd of 24 UKIP MEPs elected in May 2014 are still within the fold. One of the defectors, Nigel Farage, was leader in 2014 and has…

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In this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast: LAB’s Brexit shift, TIG voters vs the SDP & EU parliament elections

In this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast: LAB’s Brexit shift, TIG voters vs the SDP & EU parliament elections

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Matt Singh look at the numbers around Labour’s policy on a second Brexit vote and discuss the popularity of The Independent Group, comparing their potential impact to that of the SDP in the 1980s. Meanwhile, Matt unveils some exclusive polling on how Britain could vote in EU parliament elections should Article 50 be extended (& should Brits get to vote in them). Listen to the episode below Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley…

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Crisis, what crisis?

Crisis, what crisis?

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The 1979 Callaghan Winter of discontent press conference – the basis of the Sun’s famous “Crisis What Crisis” headline A crisis broken down into key elements For lovers of scandals and crises, the last few years have provided rich pickings, a surfeit, even.  Scarcely an institution has been untouched: the NHS – from Morecambe Bay to the Francis Report  on Stafford to Gosport, the police, the charity sector – from Amnesty to Oxfam, newspapers, the BBC, MPs and their expenses, Parliament and…

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Sanders aged 77 and Biden 76 move to 2nd and 3rd favourite in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting

Sanders aged 77 and Biden 76 move to 2nd and 3rd favourite in the WH2020 Democratic nomination betting

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Both old white male failures from previous White House campaigns There’s been a big shake up in the betting for the 2020 democratic nomination. Last week Bernie Sanders came into the race and established himself as second favourite. Now, the latest development is that Joe Biden, who first ran for the White House in 1984, is said to be on the point of putting his hat into the ring. Both, because they’ve…

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The hearing with Trump’s ex-lawyer, Michael Cohen, doesn’t bode well for the President

The hearing with Trump’s ex-lawyer, Michael Cohen, doesn’t bode well for the President

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In the US the big political news has been the appearance before a Congressional committee of Michael Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer who is set to go to prison in May after being convicted last year. The Republicans on the committee have been seeking to discredit him but his comments could have a big impact on WH2020. A good flavour of the hearing is from this exchange between Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) and Michael Cohen during today’s House Oversight Committee: GOSAR:…

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