Newport West was the 28th by-election to be held in Wales since the 1950 General Election. Of those 28, twenty have been defended by Labour with only one loss (Carmarthen in 1966) so therefore a Labour hold was pretty much a given. However, that doesn’t mask the fact that Labour should be worried. Labour’s vote fell by 13% on the general election, the fourth biggest drop in the Labour vote share in a Labour defence since 1950 (Caerphilly 1967 -29%,…
This market by Ladbrokes is very intriguing, because as if seems likely, the UK takes part in the European elections there’s going to be quite a few betting opportunities. I don’t think Labour or the Tories should be the favourite for this market, the latest poll from YouGov shows why the Tories and Labour aren’t really loved and led by unloved leaders. The don’t know/won’t say alliance now has more support than the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition…
One of the significant constitutional changes that came out of the coalition era was a process for MPs to be recalled. We saw this used for the first time in Northern Ireland last year and we are seeing a recall petition taking place in Peterborough at the moment. The law lays down specific circumstances in which ia petition can be triggered and one of them is the MP being convicted of parliamentary expenses fraud as has happened in Brecon and…
The stars that brought Brexit about are falling out of alignment Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are not what you would call transactional politicians. May was famously described by Ken Clarke as a “bloody difficult woman” whose time at both the Home Office and No 10 has been marked by single-minded stubbornness. Corbyn, by contrast, was for decades an activist-politician on the fringes of Labour, and has maintained many of the habits and practices afforded the awkward squad MP despite…
Currently, as I’m sure we are all aware, there is a recall petition taking place in Peterborough seeking to get a by-election following the conviction and jailing of the incumbent MP who won the seat for LAB from the Tories at the last general election. The petition closes on May 1st and we should know within a couple of days of that whether 10% of the electors in the constituency have demanded that their MP be recalled. If it does…
Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange A PB tip in January when he was 65/1 Ladbrokes is reporting this afternoon that the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, is being heavily backed to become the next leader of the Conservative Party and of course Prime Minister. The bookie ascribe this to him dropping hints that he may enter the Tory leadership race which is relatively imminent given the statements by Theresa May about her exit plan. Ladbrokes have his odds…
Newport West Result: LAB: 39.6% (-12.7)CON: 31.3% (-8.0)UKIP: 8.6% (+6.1)PLC: 5.0% (+2.6)LDM: 4.6% (+2.4)GRN: 3.9% (+2.8)REN: 3.7% (+3.7)ATWA: 0.9% (+0.9)SDP: 0.9% (+0.9)D&V: 0.8% (+0.8)FBR: 0.7% (+0.7) Labour HOLD. — Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) April 5, 2019 Top six parties finished in the same order as at GE2017 and GE2015 The Newport West by-election result has gone very much as expected and in line with national polling with the Tories losing a smaller share of the vote than LAB thus making…
Here you can see how @PeteButtigieg has risen in search interest this year.https://t.co/yaz7Sm5f8g pic.twitter.com/78pxqB7TkJ — GoogleTrends (@GoogleTrends) April 1, 2019 There ‘s little doubt that the “story” of the WH2020 Dem race in recent weeks has been the rise and rise of the 37 year old gay mayor of a small city in Indiana to be the Dem nominee. The latest news is that his fundraising in going well $7m in Q1 which while not in the Sanders’ league is…