While all the focus is Speaker Bercow

While all the focus is Speaker Bercow

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And if you haven’t seen this MAY: You're SURE it's gone?GRAYLING: DefinitelyMAY: You know 100% that the Article 50 revocation fax was sent?GRAYLING: Oh yesMAY: Phew because it's 00:01GRAYLING: I did it personallyMAY: Wait… what?! <in Brussels> JUNKER: What is this?BARNIER: A picture of an envelope — John Bull (@garius) March 18, 2019 The main overnight Brexit news Brexit latest: Theresa May drawing up letter to Donald Tusk to formally request one 9-12 month Brexit delay, but with an escape…

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Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty

Bercow’s ruling adds to the Brexit uncertainty

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It’s looking more like TMay will have to ask for more time So another day and more uncertainty over what is going to happen over brexit just 11 days away from the March 29th article 50 deadline. The Commons speaker, John Bercow, ruled in the house this afternoon that the government could not bring the deal plan back to the house for a further vote. He was applying the the rule that in any one session The Commons can only…

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The betting money’s going on the Commons approving the deal

The betting money’s going on the Commons approving the deal

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange Up from a 16% chance to a 32% one in five days At the start of another dramatic week on Brexit in the Commons there has been more news of CON MPs saying they are ready to back the deal just 10 days away from the Article 50 deadline. What we don’t know is whether there will be enough of them in order to push the total beyond that which is required…

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The Leaver case for a second referendum

The Leaver case for a second referendum

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A guest slot by Dots Once upon a time a grand and determined queen wanted to build a bold new home on the hilltop. Everyday her men would work hard to build the palace only to find on following day their work undone in piles of rubble. The queen was advised to seek help of a local boy born to a virgin mother. The boy advised why the palace could not be built, in a pool beneath the hill two…

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Betting on a Peterborough by election in 2019

Betting on a Peterborough by election in 2019

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A 16% return in just over a month? This market by Ladbrokes is not on the result of any potential by election but whether there will be one in 2019. The recall petition in Peterborough opens on Tuesday and ends on the 1st of May 2019 meaning this bet will pay out in a little over six weeks. I think the nature of the conviction and claiming a salary whilst in prison would enrage voters in all circumstances. Coupled with the…

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Labour’s path to victory. The seats that could put Labour in power

Labour’s path to victory. The seats that could put Labour in power

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Link to the map above Imagine, if you will, Jeremy Corbyn beaming and waving from the steps of 10 Downing Street, installed in power after a general election victory. On most current polls this looks unlikely: Labour are well adrift, perhaps as much as 10 points behind the Conservatives. Politics, however, is particularly volatile at present and Labour managed to turn around a much bigger deficit than that in 2017. Such fantasies or nightmares cannot be dismissed as fanciful just…

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As Farage’s “mass” march heads South the ex-UKIP leader has branding problems if there are Euro elections

As Farage’s “mass” march heads South the ex-UKIP leader has branding problems if there are Euro elections

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Do voters know that he’s quit UKIP? Given the Commons votes over the past week then there must be a chance that the UK will participate in the European Parliament elections at the end of May. Farage is now with his new Brexit party which would what would appear on the closed list ballot papers if elections are held. The problem here is that while UKIP enjoys a high level of awareness Farage’s new party has yet to establish itself….

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Key fact: Biden leads the Dem 2020 polling despite not yet running

Key fact: Biden leads the Dem 2020 polling despite not yet running

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RealClearPolitics This is more than name recognition: he’s very viable candidate One reason above all others convinced me in October 2015 that Donald Trump should be taken seriously as a presidential candidate: his performance in the opinion polls. It was easy to write him off as an amateur with a penchant for controversy and self-publicity; someone who would be overtaken by both his own absurdity and by professional politicians come the actual voting in the primaries. Easy but wrong, and…

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