At this critical time a look at matters of Confidence in the political arena

At this critical time a look at matters of Confidence in the political arena

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In both senses of the word, confidence lies at the heart of politics. It is certainly the preference of this habitual voyeur of Westminster life. Yet the concept has been distorted beyond recognition by the stresses of Brexit. Brexit positions cut across most parties, and MPs are clearly torn between their loyalties to their party, their electorate, their local members, the nation, the referendum result, and their consciences. But it is hard not to be cynical about how a number…

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Get ready for the no deal Blame Game

Get ready for the no deal Blame Game

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There’s little doubt that the Mail’s front page this morning correctly sums up the current position in relation to brexit with just 8 days to go. Given what the EU response was to Theresa May’s request for more time and her ongoing desire to get her deal approved then there must be an increasing chance that No Deal becomes what happens. If what we have been led to believe a No Deal would entail that looks like a catastrophe which…

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The betting chances of Commons agreeing deal before March 30th move up sharply to 43%

The betting chances of Commons agreeing deal before March 30th move up sharply to 43%

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange The main betting mover on another day of high drama on brexit has been on the when will the Commons pass a brexit vote market. Before PMQs this was rated as a 26.8% chance and then with what Theresa May said and other indications this has now gone to 43%. There seems to be increasing confidence that Theresa May’s long term strategy of getting her deal because the alternatives are worse through…

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Britain has deceived itself about the EU for decades and is doing so again

Britain has deceived itself about the EU for decades and is doing so again

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“Oh what a tangled web we weave. When first we practice to deceive.” Britain has deceived itself about the EU for decades. A list of all its self-deceptions would be interminable but here are some:- The Common Market will never get off the ground / be important. We can set up or belong to a rival organisation. We don’t need to belong. We do need to belong and they will be desperate to have us. We are joining a market…

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Not before 2022 now joint favourite with Q2 2019 for when Brexit happens

Not before 2022 now joint favourite with Q2 2019 for when Brexit happens

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange So much potentially could happen in the ten  days that remain between now and March 29th it is inevitable that there has been an enormous amount of movement on this Betfair  market on when Brexit will actually happen. As can be seen Q2 2019 has dropped very sharply in the last few days partly in response to the difficulty Mrs May has had in getting support for her deal and partly due…

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Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes on the WH2020 betting phenomenon of Andrew Yang

Matthew Shaddick of Ladbrokes on the WH2020 betting phenomenon of Andrew Yang

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Why the US betting support? The 2020 US Presidential Market is gathering steam right now with most of the top-tier Democratic possibles having announced their candidature. Just waiting on Joe Biden who has recently become favourite for the nomination at Ladbrokes. No doubt his price will drop a little further if and when he announces, but the bigger impact on the overall market would be if he says no. Oddly though, the biggest loser with Ladbrokes would be someone who…

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