Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members surveyed want her out

Bad news for TMay from ConHome – nearly two thirds of members surveyed want her out

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With voting due to start at Westminster at 6pm there’s bad news for the PM from the ultra Brexiteer site, ConHome. A snap survey finds 63% of those who participated wanting the PM out. The question of whether this is representative of CON members I don’t know but this is very much the impression that CONHome tries to project. Whether this will influence MPs as they prepare to cast their ballot in the confidence vote is hard to say. ComHome…

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If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe

If punters risking their cash have got this right TMay’s safe

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But could the betting markets have it wrong? Betfair and the other bookies were quick off the mark this morning getting markets up following news that tonight we will see a confidence vote amongst Conservative MPs on Theresa May. So far, it seems that political betting public at least thinks that she is going to survive and currently, as I write, (1200) Betfair has the prime minister with an 80% chance of ending the day still in her job. The…

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Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and TMay could be voted out tonight

Confirmed – 48 letters have been received by Graham Brady and TMay could be voted out tonight

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So the rumours that we were hearing last night were correct. The names have gone in to the chairman of the 1922 committee, Graham Brady, and now we have a confidence vote taking place. Under the rule changes introduced when William Hague was Conservative leader this is the mechanism for ousting someone who has ceased to retain the confidence of the parliamentary Party. If she is defeated then there will have to be a new leadership election at a very…

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Make of these Tweets what you will – but certainly lots of rumours flying about

Make of these Tweets what you will – but certainly lots of rumours flying about

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Confidence vote watch. I know it’s a dangerous game to play and Sir Graham is keeper of the list. But my ERG sources pretty confident now that 48 trigger been breached. Of course Sir Graham won’t announce while PM out of country – and we’ve been here before. But mood hardening — Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) December 11, 2018 Masses of speculation about the numbers going in – lots of people hoping the 48 has been reached, but not clear –…

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New London poll finds Sadiq Khan heading for a first round victory in his re-election bid

New London poll finds Sadiq Khan heading for a first round victory in his re-election bid

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He is well positioned to win a 2020 contest There’s a new YouGov/QMUL poll London Mayoral poll just out that has Sadiq Khan on 55% against just 27% for his Tory opponent Shaun Bailey. The voting system, it will be recalled is based on the supplementary vote so that a contender needs to win 50% only first round to be sure of victory. If indeed at the 2020 election Khan ends up according to the poll then he will secure…

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Why Jezza should beware of Nicola bearing gifts

Why Jezza should beware of Nicola bearing gifts

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SNP General Election target seats Election Polling LAB’s going to struggle to win the next GE unless there’s a rapid improvement in Scotland Last night Nicola Sturgeon said the SNP would back a Commons no confidence motion against the government if one was tabled by Labour. I’d suggest that Nicola Sturgeon and her team would not be asking for another election now unless it was pretty confident that it would do as well or even better than the 35 Scottish…

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How people would feel if the government cancelled Brexit & Britain stayed in the EU?

How people would feel if the government cancelled Brexit & Britain stayed in the EU?

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Trying to measure the “betrayal effect” Interesting polling out today from YouGov which could just become increasingly important. My initial reaction is that the 24% saying they’d feel betrayed is much lower than I’d have thought and puts into context some of the assertions from the ERG gang as they try to argue for a hard Brexit. That such a smallish percentage say they’d feel berated if Brexit got cancelled does not quite fit with some of the rhetoric that…

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