This morning’s front pages after the night before
On Betfair it’s a 54% chance that she’ll be out in 2019 Q2 Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet
The road to Brexit gets even more complicated
Picture Judy Goldhill After another dramatic evening at Westminster TMay is still there but with far less control A series of Commons votes have taken place in the past hour including one that is potentially very troubling for TMay. MPs voted to take control of the Brexit process which is a big defeat for the government. On Wednesday a series of so-called indicative votes will be held to try to to see if there’s a majority for a form of…
Both TMay and Corbyn drop to record lows in YouGov’s favourability tracker
I always feel a sense of ownership with the YouGov favourability ratings for shortly after the referendum, in 2016, I got into a discussion with the pollster about a line of questioning that I suggested that the firm should do. My desire was favourability ratings on key figures. The first ones ran here as the PB/YouGov Favourability Ratings when TMay had a net plus 12 while Corbyn was a net minus 25. This is calculated by subtracting the “unfavourable” responses from…
What four years of Govey as EdSec did to the teaching vote
But was this more down to Dominic Cummings? With Theresa May’s long term prospects in the job not looking very good there’s a lot of focus in the betting markets on who will succeed her as Conservative leader and Prime Minister. Currently the joint favourites are the ex-Mayor and former Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson and the current environment secretary, Michael Gove. It is the electoral potency of the latter that this post is about particularly the way he ran Education…
Pete Buttigieg – the 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar now running 3rd in Iowa
Probably worth a punt as a good long shot A new poll for next year’s Iowa caucuses is just out and puts a 37 year old former Rhodes Scholar from Indiana who you have probably never heard of in 3rd place. He’s Pete Buttigieg and the polling reflects the fact that over the last few days he’s been the hottest property on US political TV shows. He’s telegenic, personable, articulate, gay and almost exactly half the age of front runners…
With all the questions over TMay’s future punters it a tad less likely that she’ll be out soon
But it’s still a 67% chance that she’ll cease to be PM before Brexit There’s little doubt that just about the worst thing that Theresa May has done during her short Premiership was the broadcast to the nation five nights go when she appeared to blame Parliament for the problems in getting her brexit deal approved. It was that apparent denial of the democratic process that has angered a lot within the House and outside. More and more people are…
Viewcode on the chronicle of a bet foretold
It is 11pm on March 21st 2019 as I write this. Press releases from EUCO indicate that an unconditional extension is granted to the UK, rendering my bet on departing the EU on March 29th lost. It may be instructive therefore to examine the bet: its aim, placement, and implications. THE MOTIVE I bet from a variety of motives. There is the desire to know the world and measure myself against it, to commit to a prediction, simple greed, and…
The “Very British Populism” of Theresa May
May is (at least at the time of writing) our first populist PM. Whaaaat?!?!? A woman about whom it might be said that far from lighting up a room when she enters it, she trails gloom behind her, a populist? She has no charisma, no wit, no ability to charm or work a crowd, no followers, no chanting fans. She cannot speak – sometimes literally. She asserts, she repeats, she reprimands. She cannot persuade. In what sense then is she…