On this day exactly two years ago it was Peak Theresa May (and Nick Timothy)

On this day exactly two years ago it was Peak Theresa May (and Nick Timothy)

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On this day two years ago ComRes was just finalising its poll for the S Mirror and the Independent. These were the published figuresCON 50%LAB 25%LD 11%UKIP 7%SNP 4%GRN 3% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 19, 2019 Two years ago today pic.twitter.com/0hBCC5jVNH — Sunder Katwala (@sundersays) April 18, 2019 On the betting markets it was a 92% chance that the Tories would win a majority. It got even tighter than that – on the weekend after Tory performance in that…

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Biden drops 15 in new Democrat primary poll as Mayor Pete moves to within 4%

Biden drops 15 in new Democrat primary poll as Mayor Pete moves to within 4%

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The former VP seems to be most affected by the rise of Buttigieg In the first democratic primary polls carried out since last weekend when Mayor Pete enters the race formally at a big rally in his home city there’s a new national poll that has good news for him and bad news for Joe Biden, the former vice president, who has yet to declare. Biden is still in the lead – just. When the pollster Change Research last looked…

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Next week could see Bercexit if some Tory Leavers have their way

Next week could see Bercexit if some Tory Leavers have their way

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Brexit: Tories push to unseat ‘biased’ Speaker Bercow.https://t.co/QG9agkORvI pic.twitter.com/K86nRxoXJT — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 18, 2019 Tory Leavers might be about to make the same mistake with Bercow that they made with Mrs May last December. In today’s Times there’s this story Conservative MPs are to launch a further attempt to prise John Bercow from office amid anger over what they claim is the Speaker’s bias against Brexit. The backbencher behind the move, who says it has support from the government…

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UK Euro elections have been no guide to what will happen at the next general election

UK Euro elections have been no guide to what will happen at the next general election

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Even under Blair LAB never “won” a Euro election While everybody is getting over excited at the moment about the prospect of the May 23rd Euro elections we should remind ourselves and how they have been totally non indicative of what’s going to happen at the following general election Back in 1999, the first General Election after Tony Blair’s landslide, William Hague’s Tories came out as the top party with 33.5% of the vote 7 points ahead of Labour. Two…

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The extent to which the Euro elections can be treated as a referendum depends on whether the outcome supports your side

The extent to which the Euro elections can be treated as a referendum depends on whether the outcome supports your side

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Get ready on the evening of Sunday May 26th, when the euro elections results are announced, for the production of aggregates of the votes of the pro brexit and pro remain parties and and whoever has “won” trying argue that this is a mini referendum. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one or more of the TV results programmes creates live graphics so we can see how it is going as the numbers come in. Clearly this is a…

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Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest problem

Plunging opinion polls are not the Conservatives’ biggest problem

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Memo to Conservative Party: Since March 29th you've averaged just 32.6%This is Michael Howard 2005 territoryYou've lost 9 pts in a yearYou're losing Leavers; support down 12 points in 5 monthsUKIP+Brexit Party have doubled in 3 months to 11% These numbers = PM Jeremy Corbyn — Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) April 15, 2019 Alice was introduced to the concept of an unbirthday party at the Mad Hatter’s Tea Party. By close analogy, let me introduce you to the concept of an…

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REWRITE: What will be the party of the next MP to join TIG

REWRITE: What will be the party of the next MP to join TIG

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5/4 CON 36/1 DUP 32/1 GREEN 23/20 LAB 71/5 LD 32/1 PC 20/1 SNP 68/1 Sinn Fein I have just made an awful cockup and misread the name of the market. This is about from which party will the next defector to TIG come. Apologies. Still I think my initial reading of what the market was is a good idea for a bet. I’ve just come across this intriguing market from Smarkets on what will be the party of the…

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Blow for Change UK as it tried to complete formalities ahead of the possible May Euro elections

Blow for Change UK as it tried to complete formalities ahead of the possible May Euro elections

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As if the people aren’t confused enough as it is It has just been reported that the new party, change UK, has had its party logo rejected by the Electoral Commission on the grounds that it could “mislead voters”. Apparently the emblem was a black square with the initials TIG and the hashtag “#change”.  Apparently the Commission took the view that the new party’s chosen emblem was not sufficiently well known. But Change UK should be registered in time to…

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