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D’Hondt You Want MEPs? Who will win the most European Parliament seats in the United Kingdom?

7/4/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

This market by Ladbrokes is very intriguing, because as if seems likely, the UK takes part in the European elections there’s going to be quite a few betting opportunities. I don’t think Labour or the Tories should be the favourite for this market, the latest poll from YouGov shows why the Tories and Labour aren’t really loved and led by unloved leaders. The don’t know/won’t say alliance now has more support than the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition…

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If the Tories lost a Brecon and Radnor by-election it could be the end

6/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

One of the significant constitutional changes that came out of the coalition era was a process for MPs to be recalled. We saw this used for the first time in Northern Ireland last year and we are seeing a recall petition taking place in Peterborough at the moment. The law lays down specific circumstances in which ia petition can be triggered and one of them is the MP being convicted of parliamentary expenses fraud as has happened in Brecon and…

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Cooper-Letwin has probably killed Brexit

6/4/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

The stars that brought Brexit about are falling out of alignment Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn are not what you would call transactional politicians. May was famously described by Ken Clarke as a “bloody difficult woman” whose time at both the Home Office and No 10 has been marked by single-minded stubbornness. Corbyn, by contrast, was for decades an activist-politician on the fringes of Labour, and has maintained many of the habits and practices afforded the awkward squad MP despite…

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If we get to a Peterborough by-election it’s going to be a corker of a battle

5/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Currently, as I’m sure we are all aware, there is a recall petition taking place in Peterborough seeking to get a by-election following the conviction and jailing of the incumbent MP who won the seat for LAB from the Tories at the last general election. The petition closes on May 1st and we should know within a couple of days of that whether 10% of the electors in the constituency have demanded that their MP be recalled. If it does…

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HealthSec Hancock edges up in the betting for next CON leader and PM

5/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange A PB tip in January when he was 65/1 Ladbrokes is reporting this afternoon that the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, is being heavily backed to become the next leader of the Conservative Party and of course Prime Minister. The bookie ascribe this to him dropping hints that he may enter the Tory leadership race which is relatively imminent given the statements by Theresa May about her exit plan. Ladbrokes have his odds…

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Boost for beleaguered TMay as the Tories hold second place in Newport W with swing from LAB to CON

5/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Newport West Result: LAB: 39.6% (-12.7)CON: 31.3% (-8.0)UKIP: 8.6% (+6.1)PLC: 5.0% (+2.6)LDM: 4.6% (+2.4)GRN: 3.9% (+2.8)REN: 3.7% (+3.7)ATWA: 0.9% (+0.9)SDP: 0.9% (+0.9)D&V: 0.8% (+0.8)FBR: 0.7% (+0.7) Labour HOLD. — Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) April 5, 2019 Top six parties finished in the same order as at GE2017 and GE2015 The Newport West by-election result has gone very much as expected and in line with national polling with the Tories losing a smaller share of the vote than LAB thus making…

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As we wait for the Newport result an interesting chart on the rise Pete Buttigieg for the WH2020 Democratic nomination

4/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Here you can see how @PeteButtigieg has risen in search interest this year.https://t.co/yaz7Sm5f8g pic.twitter.com/78pxqB7TkJ — GoogleTrends (@GoogleTrends) April 1, 2019 There ‘s little doubt that the “story” of the WH2020 Dem race in recent weeks has been the rise and rise of the 37 year old gay mayor of a small city in Indiana to be the Dem nominee. The latest news is that his fundraising in going well $7m in Q1 which while not in the Sanders’ league is…

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PB’s man in Wales, Harry Hayfield, on today’s Newport West by-election

4/4/2019 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Only the second GB by-election of the parliament The Newport West by-election caused by the death of Paul Flynn, who gained the seat in 1987 from the Conservatives, was always going to be held in the shadow of Brexit. Chris Hanratty’s estimates shows that the constituency voted LEAVE by 53% to 47% and the council area voted LEAVE by 56% to 44%, but there is more, much more to Newport than how it voted in the referendum, so let’s take…

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