Why changes to the primary structure are going to make WH2020 more challenging for Bernie and non-mainstream contenders

Why changes to the primary structure are going to make WH2020 more challenging for Bernie and non-mainstream contenders

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Expect fewer caucuses & big states coming earlier As we look towards 2020 for the next White House Race leading figures within the Democratic party are ready to follow Elizabeth Warren and put their hats into the ring in the battle to be the nominee. Although the primaries will start off, as usual, with the caucasus in Iowa and the full primary in New Hampshire the overall structure is going to be very different this time which could effect the…

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Now in Scotland we are getting threats of de-selection for pro-Brexit CON MPs

Now in Scotland we are getting threats of de-selection for pro-Brexit CON MPs

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The start of trend as we get closer? The paper, the National, it should be pointed out is a strong supporter of the SNP but having said that this does raise a real issue in the one part of the UK where the Tories had real success at GE2017. Also today we’ve had this from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus which looks grim for LAB north of the border. As I’ve said repeatedly LAB has to recover in Scotland if it…

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Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting following claims of sexual harassment within his last campaign

Sanders drops to 6% chance in the WH2020 nominee betting following claims of sexual harassment within his last campaign

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Not so long ago Bernie was favourite The question of whether Bernie Sanders will run in WH2020 has been put in doubt following claims by staffers of sexual harassment during his 2016 campaign. Politico is reporting: “…that more than two dozen women and men who worked on Sanders’ 2016 campaign sent a letter last Sunday to senior Sanders officials asking for a meeting to “discuss the issue of sexual violence and harassment on the 2016 campaign, for the purpose of…

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Corbyn’s flat rejection of a second referendum sees the betting chances of one happening drop to 32%

Corbyn’s flat rejection of a second referendum sees the betting chances of one happening drop to 32%

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The big Brexit political betting movement has been a sharp fall in the betting chances of a second referendum taking place during 2019. The Betfair exchange odds plunged from nearly 40% to just 26% at about 10pm last night. Since then there’s been something of a recovery but at 32.5% as I write is still considerably lower than what it was. The Corbyn/Milne gang’s resistance in the face of strong evidence a about how party members view the issue is…

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New polling finds just 28% of GE2017 LAB voters support the party’s stance on Brexit

New polling finds just 28% of GE2017 LAB voters support the party’s stance on Brexit

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And Corbyn slumps to a post-GE2017 YouGov leader rating low New polling data just made available on the YouGov website shows the scale of the gamble LAB is taking with the party’s stance on Brexit. To the question “Do you support or oppose the stance that the Labour party have taken towards Brexit?” GE2017 LAB voters split by 28% to 25% on whether they supported or opposed. This is an incredibly low proportion given how important Brexit dominates current politics…

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On his first day as a member of the US Senate WH2012 GOP nominee, Mitt Romney, fires a broadside at Donald Trump

On his first day as a member of the US Senate WH2012 GOP nominee, Mitt Romney, fires a broadside at Donald Trump

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Mitt Romney becomes a US senator today and begins with a broadside against Trump in the Washington Post. https://t.co/TGfyp8xxid pic.twitter.com/sk4eYPxjqZ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 2, 2019 My 50/1 shot to be GOP nominee and 130/1 to win WH2020 In the Midterms in November the former governor of Massachusetts and WH2012 GOP nominee, Mitt Romney was elected with a huge majority to the US Senate for Utah. He takes up that seat today and has an article in the Washington…

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2019 opens with a bang and some leavers are getting aerated about the fireworks

2019 opens with a bang and some leavers are getting aerated about the fireworks

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Remainer partisanship re Sadiq Khan's council-tax-funded propaganda is a strong start to the new year pic.twitter.com/WRSxDX3jpT — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) January 1, 2019 Are you bloody kidding me? You put the EU flag on the London Eye on New Year’s Eve? WTAF? https://t.co/PNvWe7OhXy — Julia Hartley-Brewer (@JuliaHB1) January 1, 2019 There’s going to be a lot more of this before March 29th Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Since the end of October only one survey from a pollster other than YouGov has recorded a CON lead

Since the end of October only one survey from a pollster other than YouGov has recorded a CON lead

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All the others have had LAB leads or were tied There’s a new poll reported in the Times today from YouGov which has a Conservative lead albeit a reduced one of 2%. It has not yet been added to the Wikipedia table featured above of every published poll. When looking in detail at the list one thing is very striking and that is that the Conservatives leads are almost totally from YouGov. All the other polls bar one in early…

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