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Cooper-Letwin, forcing Article 50 to be delayed, is enacted and adds to the constraints on TMay

9/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The backbench bill that went through in three days Overnight the Queen signed what’s become known as the Cooper-Letwin measures thus making it now the law that TMay cannot take the UK out of the EU without a deal. The terms of the extension have to be agreed with Brussels. On Saturday David Herdson argued here that this measure has “probably killed Brexit”. With one more deadline, April 12th, now looming TMay is once again off on her travels trying…

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Punters make it an 81% chance that the UK will participate in the 2019 Euro Elections

8/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange This Tweet seems to confirm Members of the approved list of Tory candidates have been told in an email from CCHQ that the UK "will" be contesting EU elections on May 23rd — Patrick Maguire (@patrickkmaguire) April 8, 2019 So the chances of the UK participating in the May 23rd euro elections seems to have increased sharply during the day based on information coming out of Brussels. The real interesting feature is…

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LAB’s huge post-Corbyn increase in members has had almost no impact on the number of council seats being contested

8/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

LAB’s fighting 77% of the seats compared with the Tories’ 96% One of the things that Corbynistas always take great pride in is the number of members who have been attracted to the party since Corbyn’s victory in the 2015 leadership election. With a reported 500k+ the red team is four or five times bigger than the blue one. One the face of it you would assume that this would reflect itself at election time particularly local ones where turnout…

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Changing the subject – our first look at the May 2nd local elections

8/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Will feelings about Corbyn and TMay impact on activists? Somewhat overshadowed by the ongoing brexit saga we will get a further chance to test the political temperature in this year’s local elections which take place on May 2nd – three weeks on from Thursday. Nominations closed before the weekend. Because London is not involved then expect less media coverage than normal but the seats at stake, covering almost all of England outside the capital, represent the biggest wave in the…

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Longstanding Brexiteer, Peter Oborne, says now is not the time to leave the EU

7/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Will this be influential over the next crucial few days? The prominent right wing commentator and strong Brexiter, Peter Oborne, has published an article raising doubts and some powerfil arguments over whether now is the right time to leave. Among his key points:- “I was a strong Brexiteer. Now we must swallow our pride and think again The economic arguments for Brexit have been destroyed by a series of shattering blows Britain’s departure from the EU will be as great…

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What does Newport West tell us?

7/4/2019 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Newport West was the 28th by-election to be held in Wales since the 1950 General Election. Of those 28, twenty have been defended by Labour with only one loss (Carmarthen in 1966) so therefore a Labour hold was pretty much a given. However, that doesn’t mask the fact that Labour should be worried. Labour’s vote fell by 13% on the general election, the fourth biggest drop in the Labour vote share in a Labour defence since 1950 (Caerphilly 1967 -29%,…

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D’Hondt You Want MEPs? Who will win the most European Parliament seats in the United Kingdom?

7/4/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

This market by Ladbrokes is very intriguing, because as if seems likely, the UK takes part in the European elections there’s going to be quite a few betting opportunities. I don’t think Labour or the Tories should be the favourite for this market, the latest poll from YouGov shows why the Tories and Labour aren’t really loved and led by unloved leaders. The don’t know/won’t say alliance now has more support than the Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition…

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If the Tories lost a Brecon and Radnor by-election it could be the end

6/4/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

One of the significant constitutional changes that came out of the coalition era was a process for MPs to be recalled. We saw this used for the first time in Northern Ireland last year and we are seeing a recall petition taking place in Peterborough at the moment. The law lays down specific circumstances in which ia petition can be triggered and one of them is the MP being convicted of parliamentary expenses fraud as has happened in Brecon and…

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