Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings and Corbyn’s struggling

Best historical indicator that a LOTO will become PM have been Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings and Corbyn’s struggling

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The Blair-Major MORI satisfaction ratings before GE1997 The Cameron-Brown Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings before GE2010 Current Corbyn-May Ipsos-MORI satisfaction ratings My thanks to James Bowley for the analysis, compiling the data and the charts. The Ipsos-MORI ratings have been used because these have been recorded at regular intervals since 1977. The proposition works for the only other LOTO to become PM since this polling started – Mrs. Thatcher. In the 1979 polls before the election she led the PM, James Callaghan,…

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TMay’s new strategy – looking over the precipice as the financial markets collapse

TMay’s new strategy – looking over the precipice as the financial markets collapse

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The betting money moves against a second referendum While Mrs May is still in post and the EU are not going to budge on the terms of the deal then it looks as though the two big options remaining are a hard Brexit on March 29th or else a new referendum being announced beforehand. So far LAB has managed to get away almost scot-free without being really pressed to expand its ambivalent position on what it wants. Its main focus…

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From the Commons library a treasure trove of data for election geeks and its FREE to download

From the Commons library a treasure trove of data for election geeks and its FREE to download

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A festive download to share with your loved one To mark the 100th anniversary today of the 1918 election, the first one in which women were able to vote, the Commons library has produced an extraordinarily good document with just about every detail that you would want from every General Election over the past century. There’s table after table and chart after chart of information covering just about everything that serious political geeks might want. And the great thing is…

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NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. May fights on – so what now?

NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. May fights on – so what now?

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look back at events in a frantic week at Westminster. They debate whether May was right to postpone the meaningful vote, whether a change in leader would have any impact on Brexit negotiations and the prospect of another referendum breaking the parliamentary deadlock. Listen to this week’s episode below: Follow this week’s podcast guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

Last night’s confidence vote points to a pathway to the leadership for Johnson

Last night’s confidence vote points to a pathway to the leadership for Johnson

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If the 117 went for him he’d make the membership ballot One of the big question marks over Boris’ leadership hopes has been whether he’d be able to secure the support of enough fellow MPs in the first rounds of voting to be able to secure a place in the final two names that go to the membership. The former mayor and ex-Foreign Secretary who has just had a haircut has never had a sizeable base amongst CON MPs who…

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The confidence vote betting: How the betting markets got it right from the vey start

The confidence vote betting: How the betting markets got it right from the vey start

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Chart betdata.io But if punters could see this why not Moggsy’s ERG? Yesterday was a huge political betting day with two million pounds on the Betfair market alone being wagered on the confidence vote on Theresa May. It’s quite useful to look back and see how the markets performed against the actual result and as can be seen the lowest it ever dropped to on the Betfair Exchange for Mrs May was within the first hour at 9.40am when it…

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Immigration, immigration, immigration – it hasn’t gone away you know.

Immigration, immigration, immigration – it hasn’t gone away you know.

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Immigration was one of the major issues in the referendum debate. The influx of several million Europeans coming to a country which had made no serious effort to accommodate its biggest ever increase in population changed the political landscape and enabled in no small way the decision to leave the EU. Since the vote the immigration issue has appeared to become less important. In part this is because immigration from Europe has reduced in the last two years. Improved wages at…

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