The Tories should take some consolation from Newport West – the disaster that did not happen

The Tories should take some consolation from Newport West – the disaster that did not happen

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Betting favourite for 2nd UKIP ended with barely a quarter of the CON vote The narrative at the moment is all about how appallingly the Tories will do in the Euro elections on May 23rd. Almost no threads appear on PB these without some new prediction of the impending disaster. But are we overstating this? I think that we might be Let us look back just three weeks when we were digesting the Newport West by-election result. The UKIP candidate…

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Four weeks to go to the Euros and the polling has it very tight

Four weeks to go to the Euros and the polling has it very tight

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What is extraordinary about the coming Euro elections on May 23rd is just how many different parties will be on the ballot papers. The Wikipedia polling table above seeks to include all of them and I don’t think there has been a previous election like this in modern times. The one thing that makes the coming election different from 2014 is that there will be no simultaneous local elections on the same day. This is the first time this has…

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Biden is polling far better in the national primary surveys than in the first two states to decide

Biden is polling far better in the national primary surveys than in the first two states to decide

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With Obama’s former VP, 76 year old Joe Biden, today entering the race for the WH2020 Democratic nomination he does so from a position of strength in national polls of party voters. The chart shows the latest Real Clear Politics polling average national lead for Joe Biden over Bernie Sanders and Pete butcher Jack compared with the latest surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire. These are, of course, the first two to decide and where all the active presidential campaigns…

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ChangeUK is learning the hard way that there’s more to running a political party than just getting a few MP defectors

ChangeUK is learning the hard way that there’s more to running a political party than just getting a few MP defectors

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The struggles of the new party The widely reported problems it is having with its selection of some candidates for the European elections together with the difficulty getting a logo registered are just indications of the teething trouble that ChangeUK is having in its attempt to establish itself as a new political force. This will likely be amplified a week today in the English local elections which cover almost all the English counties with the exception of London and a…

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So all that talk of TMay’s imminent ousting was just piss and wind

So all that talk of TMay’s imminent ousting was just piss and wind

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Sir Graham Brady says the 1922 Committee will ask Theresa May for “clarity” on when she will step down if she cannot get a Brexit deal through parliament. Declines to say whether this means a specific date. — Ben Kentish (@BenKentish) April 24, 2019 Journos should be more sceptical about ERG briefings I don’t know about you but I’m getting a bit tired of all these headlines about Theresa May on the point of being ousted. This started, it will…

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Biden might be topping the polls for the Democratic nomination but the questions remain

Biden might be topping the polls for the Democratic nomination but the questions remain

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange But is he overpriced in the betting? . As can be seen in the chart Joe Biden has moved back a bit in the betting for the Democratic nomination for WH2020 White House Race. His team is making it known that tomorrow he will formally enter the race with a specially prepared video that will be distributed. This launch contrasts sharply with the mass rallies that he key opponents had with all…

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Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed

Farage against the machine. Why the Brexit party’s chances are not as good as billed

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Nigel Farage’s second coming has been greeted with fanfares in the media, which love someone who courts publicity and is prepared to do whatever it takes to get it. His gaping maw can be viewed wherever you look, and he has so far been given an unimpeded run for his message that Brexit has been betrayed. His credentials as a strategic genius who delivered Brexit are taken as read. His brilliance as a politician is assumed. The imminent collapse of…

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The Euro elections are all about vote shares not how many MEPs each party secures

The Euro elections are all about vote shares not how many MEPs each party secures

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Will the aggregate votes of the Brexit parties exceed those that oppose it? Lots of talk today about the various lists that the parties are putting up for the unexpected euro elections on May 23rd. To remind ourselves in this election voters put a cross by a party name in a particular region and their votes are allocated according to a complex system that seeks to proportionately distribute the numbers of MEPs. But what matters is surely, in the current context,…

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