Will the aggregate votes of the Brexit parties exceed those that oppose it?
Lots of talk today about the various lists that the parties are putting up for the unexpected euro elections on May 23rd. To remind ourselves in this election voters put a cross by a party name in a particular region and their votes are allocated according to a complex system that seeks to proportionately distribute the numbers of MEPs.
But what matters is surely, in the current context, will be the vote shares of the various parties. We’re going to see, whether we like it or not, efforts to aggregate the votes of those parties that are against Brexit and those parties that are for it.
The narrative on the Sunday evening after the election when the votes are counted will all be about this being a shadow referendum. Whichever side “wins” is going to argue that that represents the current position. If it is anti-Brexit then that will add to the pressure for another vote.
For this purpose UKIP+Brexit+CON+DUP will be seen as the pro-Brexit total while LAB+SNP+LD+CHK+GRN+PC the anti Brexit total.
Which group are more motivated to turnout? Will it be those who want to support the referendum outcome from 2016 or be those who want to overturn it? It will be as simple as that.
So far I cannot find a bookie who has got wise to this but it will come. The only markets I can see are those on which party will win most MEPs and how many seats each party will get.
At the moment I find it difficult to call. Maybe next week’s local elections will give us a pointer?