The seven minutes that put Kamala Harris back into the Democratic nomination race

The seven minutes that put Kamala Harris back into the Democratic nomination race

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  For this Trump called her “nasty” While most of us in the UK have been sidelined by the local election results, Gavin Williamson and the ongoing talks on brexit there has been a big development in the race for the Democratic nomination for next year’s White House election. The early favourite, and my 66/1 pick from January 2017, Kamala Harris had been edging down in the betting somewhat since launching her campaign in January. We haven’t really heard from her…

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What we are seeing in British politics at the moment could be “The New Normal”

What we are seeing in British politics at the moment could be “The New Normal”

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So, here we are, losses for both main parties, laceratingly large for the Tories, some in surprising places, the Lib Dems and the Greens cock-a-hoop, the NOTA party making a fine showing and the inevitable calls for a change of leadership  – with May more at risk, what with being heckled in Wales and facing an EGM in June. (Perhaps Trump could orchestrate proceedings during his forthcoming visit. He has experience in saying “You’re fired!” after all – with his British…

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Nigel Farage reportedly looking to do Corbyn’s dirty work and help Labour gain Boris Johnson’s seat

Nigel Farage reportedly looking to do Corbyn’s dirty work and help Labour gain Boris Johnson’s seat

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This week’s Spectator reports that Rumours are circulating that Farage’s aim is to destroy the leader he fears most: Boris Johnson. This is more doable than it might sound. The former foreign secretary holds a 5,000 majority in Uxbridge —respectable, but not a lifetime guarantee, given the volatility of contemporary politics and London’s drift away from the Tories. Word is that Farage is considering standing against Boris in the next general election. He’d lose. But he might take Johnson down…

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New Rules. Britain’s changing constitution

New Rules. Britain’s changing constitution

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Sometimes it only takes a small change to alter the shape of things radically.  In Backroom Boys by Francis Spufford, the developers of the 80s computer game Elite explained that the introduction of a scoop for a tiny dollop of memory transformed the possibilities, allowing players to become pirates as well as traders. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011 is a similarly small change and similarly it allows MPs to play as pirates as well as traders. The Act transferred…

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TMay to still be PM and the UK still in the EU at the end of the year?

TMay to still be PM and the UK still in the EU at the end of the year?

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I don't bet on politics, but colleague has refused to take 50p on UK to be in EU and May to be PM at the end of this year — John Rentoul (@JohnRentoul) May 2, 2019 I asked Ladbrokes to quote odds and they said 6/1 This Tweet from the Indy’s John Rentoul appeared on election day and I’ve been musing over it ever since. Could at the end of the year the UK still be in the EU and…

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The locals – how the forecasters did

The locals – how the forecasters did

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The actual was CON -1334, LAB -83, LD +703 The above table was produced by Oxford Professor, Stephen Fisher, and published on his site on the day before the locals. Now we know the results it’s very useful to see how conventional forecasting methods compared against what actually happened and is a good reference for the future. The first two columns are by Stephen Fisher himself. It should be noted that Steven is one of the country’s leading political scientists…

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A big loser from the locals is Change UK who decided to sit these elections out

A big loser from the locals is Change UK who decided to sit these elections out

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It’ll be the LDs who’ll find it easier to present themselves as the voice of Remain The New Statesman’s Stephen Bush’s analysis sums up the post-local elections challenge for ChangeUK which, of course, did not participate yesterday. “….the reality is that if any party can now pivot to being the natural choice for Remainers who want to send a message at the European elections on 23 May, it is going to be the Liberal Democrats. What they need to do…

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The Tories and LDs doing better than the polls on the Projected National Vote Share

The Tories and LDs doing better than the polls on the Projected National Vote Share

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BBC Projected National Share of the vote (PNS) for the 2019 local elections:Con 28Lab 28LD 19Others 25 Only the second time all parties under 30%. Best Lib Dem share since 2010. pic.twitter.com/YINiVH3L8G — Steve Fisher (@StephenDFisher) May 3, 2019 Latest BBC Scorecard pic.twitter.com/Faq93AQEDB — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 3, 2019 Corbyn’s LAB doing worse than EdM’s party four years ago The local results are coming in thick and fast and the LDs have just ABOUT achieved the 500 gain projection…

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