And so to next week’s Peterborough by-election

And so to next week’s Peterborough by-election

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Ordnance Survey Peterborough (East of England) result: Brex: 38.3% (+38.3)Lab: 17.2% (-7.9)LDem: 15.4% (+10.9)Con: 10.9% (-14.7)Grn: 10.8% (+5.1)UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 26, 2019 TBP’s first Westminster seat? When earlier in the year Peterborough’s former MP was jailed over a speeding points issue a recall petition was initiated which ended with her losing her seat. The campaign to secure the requisite 10% of voters was backed by both the Tories and LAB and the total required was…

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At last “deal of no deal” looks to take centre stage in the CON leadership contest

At last “deal of no deal” looks to take centre stage in the CON leadership contest

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Jeremy Hunt comes out against no deal Brexit in tomorrow's Tgraph: 'Trying to deliver no deal through a general election is not a solution. It is political suicide, that would delight Nigel Farage and probably put Jeremy Corbyn in No 10 by Christmas.' https://t.co/JLGNmZUkVA — Katy Balls (@katyballs) May 27, 2019 Hunt’s move could put BoJo on the spot The Telegraph is reporting what could prove to be a big move in the race to become TMay’s successor – he’s…

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The first consequence of the Euros – LAB appears to be edging closer to a second referendum

The first consequence of the Euros – LAB appears to be edging closer to a second referendum

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Corbyn's team said the John McDonnell tweet this morning demanding public vote meant "both a general election, which is our preference, or a referendum" But McDonnell has just appeared on Sky saying a referendum is "inevitable" because Tory MPs won't back a general election… — Jim Pickard ? (@PickardJE) May 27, 2019 Here’s the latest on Labour’s #brexit policy https://t.co/9cUcw5K9AP — Vicki Young (@BBCVickiYoung) May 27, 2019 It was inevitable after their drubbing in the Euro elections that LAB was…

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How the final polls did against the actual results – party by party

How the final polls did against the actual results – party by party

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As can be seen from the charts above the biggest problem the pollsters had was with LAB which had a huge range in the final polls. Partly, I suspect, this was that Labour supporters had not finalised their decision to vote tactically when they were being questioned. It is well know that a significant proportion of voters really don’t make their minds up until the last moment. This is why Ipsos MORI generally try to ensure that its final poll…

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The overnight figures don’t look good for many of the pollsters

The overnight figures don’t look good for many of the pollsters

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BBC We’ve now got all the regional results in England and Wales with Scotland to be finalised and the Northern Ireland county to take place in the morning. The numbers in the BBC table above speak for themselves. In a later post we’ll look in detail at how the final polls did against the outcome but it is clear that those pollsters that had LAB in the low or mid-20s haven’t come out of this well. Now I must work…

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The Tories get wiped out in the East Midlands, Yorkshire & The Humber, The South West, and Wales

The Tories get wiped out in the East Midlands, Yorkshire & The Humber, The South West, and Wales

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EAST MIDLANDS DECLARED Results so far: BXP: 21 (+21)LDM: 10 (+10)LAB: 7 (-6)GRN: 5 (+2)CON: 2 (-12)PLC: 1 (=)UKIP: 0 (-15) Changes w/ 2014 #EP2019 pic.twitter.com/NDcG4XlFiy — Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) May 26, 2019 South West, vote share: Brex: 36.7% (+36.7)LDem: 23.1% (+12.4)Grn: 18.1% (+7.0)Con: 8.7% (-20.2)Lab: 6.5% (-7.2)UKIP: 3.2% (-29.1)ChUK: 2.8% (+2.8) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 26, 2019 Yorkshire & Humber, vote share: Brex: 36.5% (+36.5)Lab: 16.3% (-13.0)LDem: 15.5% (+9.2)Grn: 13.0% (+5.1)Con: 7.2% (-12.0)UKIP: 4.4% (-26.7)York: 3.9% (+2.4)ChUK:…

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The Tories wiped out in London as Mike Smithson wins his bet on the Lib Dems winning London

The Tories wiped out in London as Mike Smithson wins his bet on the Lib Dems winning London

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East of England, vote share: Brex: 37.8% (+37.8)LDem: 22.6% (+15.7)Grn: 12.7% (+4.2)Con: 10.2% (-18.2)Lab: 8.7% (-8.6)ChUK: 3.7% (+3.7)UKIP: 3.4% (-31.1) — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) May 26, 2019 There are just over 100,000 Labour Party members in London, which is 20% of Labour’s total London vote. pic.twitter.com/PWEtJI72hC — Tom Hamilton (@thhamilton) May 26, 2019 Lib Dems get a huge symbolic win in Corbyn's Islington https://t.co/d9Djsm968N — Adam Payne (@adampayne26) May 26, 2019 The Conservatives are on course to win their lowest…

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Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two parties are the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems

Two party politics is still with us, except this time the two parties are the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems

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D'Hondt rush to judgment on the Euros results. You shouldn't read too much into an election with a turnout of circa 40%. Plus votes rather than seats matter in the grand scheme of things, especially under D'Hondt. — TSE (@TSEofPB) May 26, 2019 Early days. But these results are turning into Corbyn's biggest nightmare. Northern Labour voters turning to Brexit Party. London and Southern Labour voters turning to Lib Dems. By appealing to everyone he's appealed to no-one. — (((Dan…

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