Peterborough (East of England) result:
Brex: 38.3% (+38.3)
Lab: 17.2% (-7.9)
LDem: 15.4% (+10.9)
Con: 10.9% (-14.7)
Grn: 10.8% (+5.1)
UKIP: 3.6% (-29.9)
— Britain Elects (@britainelects) May 26, 2019
TBP’s first Westminster seat?
When earlier in the year Peterborough’s former MP was jailed over a speeding points issue a recall petition was initiated which ended with her losing her seat. The campaign to secure the requisite 10% of voters was backed by both the Tories and LAB and the total required was surmounted by a big margin.
The by-election takes place a week on Thursday and this has the possible rarity of being in a seat which flips between CON and LAB with majorities in the hundreds. Unlike most recent Westminster by-elections this is a tight marginal.
Also after the Euros result yesterday it looks ideal territory for Farage’s Brexit Party. Given the way the two “main” parties are perceived at the moment on Betfair TBP is rated as a 77% chance to succeed.
Although the LDs do hold a few council seats in the city this does not look like obvious territory for them although they are campaigning hard on their opposition to Brexit. ChangeUK is giving this one a miss. The LDs main hopes are pinned on the recall petition currently under way in Brecon and Radnor – a seat they held until GE2015.
With two elections so close to each other my guess is that turnout will be right down even below last Thursday. You can see voters there being election weary especially when faced with fifteen candidates on the ballot paper.
It should be noted that the vote splits from last Thursday’s election above are for the borough which is wider than the parliamentary constituency.