For the first time ever neither LAB nor CON occupy the top two slots in a national Westminster voting intention poll

For the first time ever neither LAB nor CON occupy the top two slots in a national Westminster voting intention poll

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LD 24% BXP 22% LAB 19% CON 19% As had been leaked earlier yesterday evening the latest Times YouGov poll has historic changes in the party order with the Lib Dems on 24% two points ahead of BXP with Labour and the Tories both on 19%. This has simply not happened before in the history of polling. It is totally unprecedented for neither of the two major parties currently forming the government and the opposition to perform so poorly. Clearly…

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YouGov LAB party members polling finds that just 45% backed the party last Thursday

YouGov LAB party members polling finds that just 45% backed the party last Thursday

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Question for ?@UKLabour? – are you planning on expelling nearly half the membership? pic.twitter.com/I3z6ZOpF59 — Marcus A. Roberts (@marcusaroberts) May 30, 2019 Putting Alastair Campbell into context I find the above polling of LAB ,members really quite remarkable and shows the huge difficulty the leadership has pursuing its Brexit agenda which is alien to a large part of the membership base. That in a major election fewer than half the membership voted for the party says an enormous amount about…

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At least TMay and Jezza have one record they can claim

At least TMay and Jezza have one record they can claim

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In terms of their Ipsos MORI leader satisfactions ratings TMay and Corbyn are now the most unpopular PM and opposition leader duo of all time with an aggregate net negative of -96. They beat the 1981 Thatcher/Foot negative of -89 https://t.co/crypWDGP8i via @Telegraph — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 30, 2019 The Ipsos-MORI leader satisfaction ratings have been carried out in the same manner since the 1970s with the question being put in the same way over the decades. It is…

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Boris Johnson – The False Favourite for the Tory leadership

Boris Johnson – The False Favourite for the Tory leadership

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Right now British politics and British political betting is consumed by the race for next Conservative leader and next Prime Minister. Conventional wisdom on both is that Boris Johnson is the man to beat. He has traded below evens on Betfair for the roles and after an initial rush of excitement, he has settled down in both next Conservative leader and next Prime Minister markets at about 5/2 at the time of writing. Certainly there is evidence to back up…

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In the TMay successor betting Gove replaces Raab as second favourite – Johnson still clear favourite

In the TMay successor betting Gove replaces Raab as second favourite – Johnson still clear favourite

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There have now been two working days since TMay announced her exit programme and there has been quite a lot of movement on the Betfair exchange where £0.75m has been gambled in the past week. The big change as can be seen in the chart is the growing support for Michael Gove who has replaced Raab as second favourite. All sort of new betting mark with 12 CON MPs now having declared themselves as runners. Unless there is any whittling…

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Let’s put an end to this rubbish thinking about LAB being vulnerable in its Leave Westminster seats

Let’s put an end to this rubbish thinking about LAB being vulnerable in its Leave Westminster seats

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“There is some chatter in the Labour groups about the party adopting a radical Revoke and Reform policy at a September General Election. Not the usual suspects, this comes from Corbyn supporters. In which case Labour better prepare for annihilation by the Brexit Party in its Leave seats in the North and Midlands and Wales even if they hold onto London and other big cities and university towns” The majority of its GE2017 gains from CON were in seats that…

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The Campbell expulsion from LAB – the ramifications continue

The Campbell expulsion from LAB – the ramifications continue

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I’ve witnessed Kate Hoey share a stage with Nigel Farage, in front of an image mocking Jeremy Corbyn.Accross the street on another stage was Tommeh Robnson.Kate Hoey is still a labour member.Alastair Campbell has been expelled today. — ali (@ali__samson) May 28, 2019 I bet several Labour MPs quietly voted Lib Dem too, just as many Conservative MPs voted for the Brexit Party last Thursday. https://t.co/ju2nU78z2F — Michael Crick (@MichaelLCrick) May 28, 2019 In what isn’t coincidental timing, Alastair Campbell…

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Alastair Campbell purged from Corbyn’s LAB for backing the LDs in last week’s election

Alastair Campbell purged from Corbyn’s LAB for backing the LDs in last week’s election

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Well this is all going a bit East Germany ca 1953 … Labour expels Alastair Campbell from party https://t.co/q35cU1ysVr — anne mcelvoy (@annemcelvoy) May 28, 2019 I suspect if they knew all the members who voted LibDem or Green in EU elections and expelled them there would be few of us left https://t.co/AAeaJ8YjDL — George Foulkes (@GeorgeFoulkes) May 28, 2019 Remember Corbyn taking pleasure at Labour's defeat in the 2012 Bradford by-election pic.twitter.com/yKMOZKvf9M — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 28, 2019…

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