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If the betting markets have this right Peterborough could have its third MP in two years all from different parties

5/6/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Brexit party leaflet Peterborough The Westminster by-election in Peterborough has become an intriguing contest with three and perhaps four possibilities of which party will be the winner. It was CON until June 2017 when it became a shock LAB gain with the winner losing her seat in May after the first successful use of the new recall procedure. Now LAB is batting to hold on against Farage’s new Brexit party which came out top in the Euros there on May…

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Flashback Wednesday

5/6/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Here were the Next Prime Minister odds immediately after Theresa May took over in July 2016. pic.twitter.com/BXALM3ZKv0 — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) June 4, 2019 I found this tweet illuminating and amusing. Only three of the eleven on that list are likely to succeed Mrs May, four if you include Corbyn. The most amusing thing is the enduring mystery about David Miliband’s price when it comes to these type of markets. He was the same odds as Michael Gove and Sajid…

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Going back to your constituencies. Alastair Meeks on not taking seat predictors too seriously in times of change

5/6/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Obviously, you should not treat opinion polls very seriously at all, especially when no general election is on hand. Respondents are being asked an artificial question (there is no general election tomorrow) with no real-world consequences hanging on their answer. You might be getting a general expression of enthusiasm for a particular credo, a message to the voter’s normal choice or simply a casual choice made without much thought, and that’s before you get into the methodological adjustments that the pollsters…

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In around seven weeks time we shall have a new Tory leader (and probably PM)

4/6/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Conservatives announce first round ballot for the leadership race next Thursday, then all wrapped up the following week to decide final two. New PM week beginning July 22 pic.twitter.com/k9nWG5blat — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) June 4, 2019 The first round of voting begins a week on Thursday. Today the Conservative party announced the schedule and rules in the contest to succeed Mrs May. The biggest changes are the nomination threshold which seems to rule out five candidates based on the…

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The successor to Sir Vince Cable might currently be in another party

4/6/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Heidi Allen, and the former Labour MP Chuka Umunna, are among those thought to be considering defecting to Lib Dems https://t.co/JdN3aRrrCn — Lisa O'Carroll (@lisaocarroll) June 4, 2019 I’m told Sarah Wollaston is leaving Change UK. — (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) June 4, 2019 It appears Change UK might be about to undergo some fundamental change, The Guardian report that Up to half of Change UK’s MPs are poised to leave the fledgling political party after its dismal performance in the European elections….

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The Trump buzzword bingo market

4/6/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Donald Trump is 3/1 to mention "Liverpool" during his press conference tomorrow.Anything else we should add to the Buzzword Bingo list?https://t.co/7uuzMAdMxE pic.twitter.com/4P6QlWo49Y — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) June 3, 2019 What will Trump say in his press conference today? Because of my consistent record in these buzzword bingo markets I view these markets as my contribution to the Christmas bonus fund for Shadsy even before we consider that someone as volatile and rambling as Donald Trump is the focus of this…

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This seems like a good way to get a 20% return in around a month or so

3/6/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Given what is stake and the egos involved I cannot see the candidates not taking this contest to the members so that’s why I’m backing the 1/5 Paddy Power are offering. After Leavers conspired to hand the crown to Mrs May in 2016 and bypassing the members there’ll be a desire for the members to take part, as a Tory member there’s a real desire amongst my fellow members to have the final say, something that I’d expect to be…

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Michael Gove – the case against

3/6/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

From a PBer teacher who remembers when Gove was EdSec Michael Gove has many admirers – most notably, several on this forum, including a former Labour MP and a number of Conservative and UKIP voters. He is an experienced minister, having held office for nine years (one of them outside the cabinet). He is able, articulate, polite, and from a very modest background. He is well connected in the media, has a remarkable imagination and drive, and stands out, frankly,…

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