The real driver behind Johnson’s CON MP campaign has been Gavin Williamson, not Lynton Crosby

The real driver behind Johnson’s CON MP campaign has been Gavin Williamson, not Lynton Crosby

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Marf cartoon first appeared after Williamson was sacked A guest slot by The Kitchen Cabinet There are some events that seem unimportant and innocuous at the time but which have far reaching consequences on the longer-term. Historically, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand in 1914 is the biggest example, an event which, at first, attracted little attention but which set off World War I. Another, far less known, is the financial scandals of President Hindenburg’s son, Oskar, which many believe was…

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Boris will be the next prime minister. Then what?

Boris will be the next prime minister. Then what?

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Airy assertions and motivational phrases do not deliver deals or organise governments The landslide victory for Boris in the first round of the Tory leadership contest comes close by itself to assuring him of the outright win. Even at the 1/5 odds currently widely quoted, he’s still value. Put simply, the main question is whether he’ll cruise over the line or stumble over it. His safety-first approach may well tend towards the latter outcome for lack of energy and momentum…

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Boris and the illusion of unity

Boris and the illusion of unity

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“To govern is to choose. To appear to be unable to choose is to appear to be unable to govern.” – Nigel Lawson There was a time, not long ago although it seems a world away now, when the electoral pitch of the Conservative Party strongly featured its willingness to make difficult decisions, to address reality rather than pretend problems away. It was a pitch which won respect and therefore won elections. So how is the party doing with the…

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The latest PB / Polling Matters podcast asks two big questions about Johnson: Is his victory now inevitable and is he a vote winner?

The latest PB / Polling Matters podcast asks two big questions about Johnson: Is his victory now inevitable and is he a vote winner?

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  Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the numbers and ask whether Johnson is a shoo-in to be the next Prime Minister and whether or not he is the vote winner that some say he is. Listen to the episode here: Follow this week’s guests: Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet

Chuka joins the Lib Dems but will he be able to retain Streatham at the next GE

Chuka joins the Lib Dems but will he be able to retain Streatham at the next GE

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This was Chuka's result in Streatham at GE2017. Will be able to defend that as an LD. The seat had just about the biggest remain vote at the referendum. pic.twitter.com/XpGgdVwzL8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 13, 2019 Quite refreshing to read an interview where someone admits that they were flat wrong about something this big: https://t.co/nPjwsrZUlv — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) June 13, 2019

2019 now moves to the favourite slot as year of the next general election

2019 now moves to the favourite slot as year of the next general election

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Chart of Betfair price movements from Betdata.io The big betting move following Johnson’s thumping victory in the first round of the CON MP leadership voting has been renewed interest in the next general election taking place this year. This has now moved to favourite on Betfair. A challenge for a Boris-led CON party is going to be keeping the parliamentary grouping together because, if not, you could see him failing a government confidence motion at the first hurdle which, if…

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So which ones will survive the first vote?

So which ones will survive the first vote?

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The Tory leadership open thread CON MP voting in the first round of the leadership contest ended at noon and the result is expected by 1pm. Contenders need to have secured 17 or more votes to get into the next round. Gove – 37Hancock – 20Harper – 10 OUTHunt – 43Javid – 23BoJo – 114Leadsom – 11 OUTMcVey – 9 OUTRaab – 27Stewart – 19 — Tim Stanley (@timothy_stanley) June 13, 2019 Johnson moves to a 79% chance on Betfair…

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Get ready for the Betrayals Ahead

Get ready for the Betrayals Ahead

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As CON MPs prepare to vote a look at the bigger picture There is a political divide in Britain. No, not that one. But one between those seeing Brexit as an end in itself and those for whom it is a means to an end. The former seems to comprise most of the Tory party. The candidates for leader seem to agree. “We must do Brexit” they cry. In some cases, one suspects it is said with all the sincerity…

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